I would Google Equity Risk Premium. I believe your estimate is correct but that assumes a risk-free rate of more than zero. The risk-free rate is close to zero,

I would Google Equity Risk Premium. I believe your estimate is correct but that assumes a risk-free rate of more than zero. The risk-free rate is close to zero, which is why DSM forecast ERP of 350bps (and I believe their data still has survivorship bias). Also, remember that we are quite near the top in a market that is 50-60% of world share, so I would be conservative about projections when the end year is favourable (as an example, Stocks for the Long Run had a very big estimate of long-term returns in the late 90s...that fell in the subsequent years).