Nobody is talking about banning existing cars, so the 50-60y timeline is irrelevant for this discussion. Some cities are considering banning non-EVs from the co

Nobody is talking about banning existing cars, so the 50-60y timeline is irrelevant for this discussion. Some cities are considering banning non-EVs from the core though. There’s some talk of trying geofencing tech that would allow hybrids if they’re in EV-mode. Also remember that adoption tend to follow S-curves. From start to finish is a long time. But the 10-90% ramp is usually very fast. Norway and Netherlands will probably ban or severely restrict sale of new non-BEV cars in 2030. I’m guessing a lot of other countries will consider it, or implement very strong incentives then. Norway went from 1% to 50% of new sales being BEV in about 10 years. Most of that in the last 5. This was during a time when BEVe and charging technology was garbage compared to whats on the market now. We mostly ramped up with 50kW fast chargers. Now 350kW is becoming common. > they happen in response to market pressure This is starting to ramp up very quickly now. BEVs should have lower TCO by at latest 2024 or so depending on where you live. A breakthrough in battery tech that reaches market before 2025 could accelerate things significantly. Yeah, we’ve all heard about all these fantastic battery breakthroughs in the lab that we never see the results of. The thing is, some of those have been quietly progressing, and now we’re seeing companies actually start real manufacturing of some of these. QuantumScape is a promising example.