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As I mentioned in my reply above, I think the way it can work is if it grows exponentially, and the US government doesn't respond in time at which point not usi

by dntrkv 6y ago

As I mentioned in my reply above, I think the way it can work is if it grows exponentially, and the US government doesn't respond in time at which point not using crypto will put the US at a disadvantage. Crypto has the unique ability to spread across borders with ease, no other currency has had this ability. So I think it's a pretty unique scenario in that case. Another scenario is if it grows slowly amongst the countries that have unstable currencies. Slowly it takes over the USD as the world currency. At a certain point, the US would have to allow it to participate in that economy.

ben_w 6y ago
Nations with bad currencies and mismanaged economies sometimes switch to the USD. Such nations collectively switching to a different currency like the Euro or the Yuan is way more plausible than switching to Bitcoin; and not only do none of the USA, the Eurozone, nor China have economic policies compatible with giving up direct control of inflation, the usefulness of a shared single currency isn’t enough to outweigh the political costs for the UK to use the Euro (famously), or South Korea to use the Yuan, or Canada to use USD. Money in the scale of governments isn’t like money on the scale of individuals. For governments, money isn’t even like it is for the richest individuals, different as it is between the rich and normal people.
- yazaddaruvala 6y ago
  I don't follow. Why would a country's citizens choose to use a different country's currency rather than a denationalized currency? i.e. couple their monetary policy to the world market, rather than to a single country's market. Given they just experienced one countries economy create poor monetary policy, why trust a single entity rather than diversify by trusting the group decision of many decentralized entities? And why wouldn't a government whose citizens do not trust the government's currency, not incentivize its citizens to use a denationalized currency instead of funding potential threats? e.g. The Venezuelan government would way rather its citizens use BTC over USD or Colombian currency, in order to ensure inflation/deflation is globally decided by neutral parties, rather than decided by a single foreign entity with potentially malicious intent.
  - ben_w 6y ago
    Aaa… this will take too long to do justice to the topic, but politically speaking, the Euro is supernational and the UK collectively hates it, that sort of attitude is part of the problem. “Loss of sovereignty” is how they felt about it, how many discussed it. > The Venezuelan government would way rather its citizens use BTC over USD or Colombian currency, in order to ensure inflation/deflation is globally decided by neutral parties Why would those parties have Venezuelan interests in mind rather than their own? One of the arguments against the Eurozone (I’m not qualified to judge it on quality, but it is given as an argument) is that Northern Europe “should” have different inflation to Southern Europe to help boost the local economies. Can’t do that with a single currency, they say, and that would apply more the wider that zone spreads. A single global economy — fiat, digital, or metallurgical — would never be able to resolve it.
    - yazaddaruvala 6y ago
      > “Loss of sovereignty” is how they felt about it, how many discussed it. Yup! I agree, there will be many holdout countries. However, even the UK uses the USD as the world's reserve currency. > Why would those parties have Venezuelan interests in mind rather than their own? Venezuela was fucked because a handful of people are performing bad monetary policy. While the interests of each mining operation would be their own interests, in aggregate, the interests of all BTC mining is a globally averaged monetary policy. Unaffected by corruption, or stupidity (whichever you think is a more apt description of Venezuela's current monetary problem).
      - ben_w 6y ago
        > in aggregate, the interests of all BTC mining is a globally averaged monetary policy. And what in the standard deviations of all nation’s needs?
        yazaddaruvala 6y ago
        Fair enough :) I don't know what a globally averaged monetary policy will look like (or who it'll benefit the most), but I can say that for any population currently living with a monetary policy below the average (i.e. because of corruption or stupidity), it'll be an improvement and they will adopt a denationalized currency to get it.

by dntrkv 6y ago

ben_w 6y ago

Nations with bad currencies and mismanaged economies sometimes switch to the USD. Such nations collectively switching to a different currency like the Euro or the Yuan is way more plausible than switching to Bitcoin; and not only do none of the USA, the Eurozone, nor China have economic policies compatible with giving up direct control of inflation, the usefulness of a shared single currency isn’t enough to outweigh the political costs for the UK to use the Euro (famously), or South Korea to use the Yuan, or Canada to use USD. Money in the scale of governments isn’t like money on the scale of individuals. For governments, money isn’t even like it is for the richest individuals, different as it is between the rich and normal people.

yazaddaruvala 6y ago
I don't follow. Why would a country's citizens choose to use a different country's currency rather than a denationalized currency? i.e. couple their monetary policy to the world market, rather than to a single country's market. Given they just experienced one countries economy create poor monetary policy, why trust a single entity rather than diversify by trusting the group decision of many decentralized entities? And why wouldn't a government whose citizens do not trust the government's currency, not incentivize its citizens to use a denationalized currency instead of funding potential threats? e.g. The Venezuelan government would way rather its citizens use BTC over USD or Colombian currency, in order to ensure inflation/deflation is globally decided by neutral parties, rather than decided by a single foreign entity with potentially malicious intent.
- ben_w 6y ago
  Aaa… this will take too long to do justice to the topic, but politically speaking, the Euro is supernational and the UK collectively hates it, that sort of attitude is part of the problem. “Loss of sovereignty” is how they felt about it, how many discussed it. > The Venezuelan government would way rather its citizens use BTC over USD or Colombian currency, in order to ensure inflation/deflation is globally decided by neutral parties Why would those parties have Venezuelan interests in mind rather than their own? One of the arguments against the Eurozone (I’m not qualified to judge it on quality, but it is given as an argument) is that Northern Europe “should” have different inflation to Southern Europe to help boost the local economies. Can’t do that with a single currency, they say, and that would apply more the wider that zone spreads. A single global economy — fiat, digital, or metallurgical — would never be able to resolve it.
  - yazaddaruvala 6y ago
    > “Loss of sovereignty” is how they felt about it, how many discussed it. Yup! I agree, there will be many holdout countries. However, even the UK uses the USD as the world's reserve currency. > Why would those parties have Venezuelan interests in mind rather than their own? Venezuela was fucked because a handful of people are performing bad monetary policy. While the interests of each mining operation would be their own interests, in aggregate, the interests of all BTC mining is a globally averaged monetary policy. Unaffected by corruption, or stupidity (whichever you think is a more apt description of Venezuela's current monetary problem).
    - ben_w 6y ago
      > in aggregate, the interests of all BTC mining is a globally averaged monetary policy. And what in the standard deviations of all nation’s needs?
      - yazaddaruvala 6y ago
        Fair enough :) I don't know what a globally averaged monetary policy will look like (or who it'll benefit the most), but I can say that for any population currently living with a monetary policy below the average (i.e. because of corruption or stupidity), it'll be an improvement and they will adopt a denationalized currency to get it.