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Even among epidemiologists it was the dominant viewpoint until things got politicized. Look at the UK’s flu pandemic preparedness plan from 2011. Made for a flu
by mrfusion 6y ago
Even among epidemiologists it was the dominant viewpoint until things got politicized.
Look at the UK’s flu pandemic preparedness plan from 2011. Made for a flu with a CFR up to 2.5 percent. (Much more deadly than Covid). It is essentially an anti-mask lockdown skeptical plan.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
- sbinthree 6y agoYes, the current sitting Health Minister in Canada said in their 2006 flu plan with the same CFR that we will / should never lockdown so plan for other measures.
- maxerickson 6y agoYou are assuming on their behalf that the plan for a novel virus would be the same as for the flu. (For example, the vaccine timeline would likely be faster for a flu variant than it was for Covid, which was already fast vs what you would want to potentially plan for)
- mrfusion 6y agoYou do raise a fair point. And the imagery coming to us last year absolutely terrified people. People collapsing in the streets (what was the deal with that?). Piles of bodies in Italy. I feel the iron law of bureaucracy explains a lot of our response. https://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html https://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html