3 ms·

Lockdown Scepticism Was Never a ‘Fringe’ Viewpoint – Quillette

2 points by mrfusion 6y ago

mrfusion 6y ago
Even among epidemiologists it was the dominant viewpoint until things got politicized. Look at the UK’s flu pandemic preparedness plan from 2011. Made for a flu with a CFR up to 2.5 percent. (Much more deadly than Covid). It is essentially an anti-mask lockdown skeptical plan. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
- sbinthree 6y ago
  Yes, the current sitting Health Minister in Canada said in their 2006 flu plan with the same CFR that we will / should never lockdown so plan for other measures.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  You are assuming on their behalf that the plan for a novel virus would be the same as for the flu. (For example, the vaccine timeline would likely be faster for a flu variant than it was for Covid, which was already fast vs what you would want to potentially plan for)
  - mrfusion 6y ago
    You do raise a fair point. And the imagery coming to us last year absolutely terrified people. People collapsing in the streets (what was the deal with that?). Piles of bodies in Italy. I feel the iron law of bureaucracy explains a lot of our response. https://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html https://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html
LinuxBender 6y ago
Did any of the studies calculate or estimate the non pathological impact of a lock-down? job and business losses, suicide, tax revenue impact, etc... Would this be the expected role of scientists, or would this require other experts to estimate the impact? Who's job is it to factor in these variables and where do they publish the data?
basicplus2 6y ago
I look at it this way.. if people had actually locked down hard everywhere for two or three weeks over a year ago, this damn virus and the common cold would be history. The problem is not the lock downs, its the failure of the lockdowns because of the people who don't do it.

2 points by mrfusion 6y ago

Even among epidemiologists it was the dominant viewpoint until things got politicized. Look at the UK’s flu pandemic preparedness plan from 2011. Made for a flu with a CFR up to 2.5 percent. (Much more deadly than Covid). It is essentially an anti-mask lockdown skeptical plan. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

sbinthree 6y ago
Yes, the current sitting Health Minister in Canada said in their 2006 flu plan with the same CFR that we will / should never lockdown so plan for other measures.
maxerickson 6y ago
You are assuming on their behalf that the plan for a novel virus would be the same as for the flu. (For example, the vaccine timeline would likely be faster for a flu variant than it was for Covid, which was already fast vs what you would want to potentially plan for)
- mrfusion 6y ago
  You do raise a fair point. And the imagery coming to us last year absolutely terrified people. People collapsing in the streets (what was the deal with that?). Piles of bodies in Italy. I feel the iron law of bureaucracy explains a lot of our response. https://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html https://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html

LinuxBender 6y ago

Did any of the studies calculate or estimate the non pathological impact of a lock-down? job and business losses, suicide, tax revenue impact, etc... Would this be the expected role of scientists, or would this require other experts to estimate the impact? Who's job is it to factor in these variables and where do they publish the data?

basicplus2 6y ago

I look at it this way.. if people had actually locked down hard everywhere for two or three weeks over a year ago, this damn virus and the common cold would be history. The problem is not the lock downs, its the failure of the lockdowns because of the people who don't do it.