6 ms·

I mean it’s not like intel and their fans are utterly worthless, they may not be on par with TSMC 5nm yet, but in the end given a strong strategic need, I don’t

I mean it’s not like intel and their fans are utterly worthless, they may not be on par with TSMC 5nm yet, but in the end given a strong strategic need, I don’t think we’d be without advanced chips for very long if TSMC is overtaken by China. There’s also the fact that a war between China and Taiwan is almost certainly going to go hot with the USA too, possibly leading to nuclear exchanges… It’s much more likely that China eventually starts producing their own state of the art silicon before going to war with Taiwan.

tomerico 6y ago
I wonder how many countries today are not in war simply because of fear of retaliation from the USA.
- sneak 6y ago
  Say what you (or Kubrick) will about mutually assured destruction, it sure does seem to have prevented a lot of violence, despite also seeming totally insane.
  - monadic7 6y ago
    I never got that logic—the US has been in armed conflict in various forms since the end of WWII, whether directly or through the CIA. It seems more like nukes enable violence from my perspective.
    - throwaway6734 6y ago
      The world was a much more violent place before pax americana.
      - sangnoir 6y ago
        > The world was a much more violent place before pax americana. Europe, for sure is a lot less violent, as for the rest of the world? I won't believe that on face value; south America specifically got more violent, and I suspect everywhere else is a wash (or is not attributable to American force projection). I attribute the peace in Europe to the EU rather than pax Americana.
        throwaway6734 6y ago
        The EU was founded in 1993.
        sangnoir 6y ago
        A company named "Apple, Inc." didn't exist prior to 2007 either - that's just splitting hairs, IMO, a rose by any other name &tc, &tc. I assumed anyone who has passing familiarity with Europe's history and WWII knew exactly what I meant by "EU" - you may read it as "the European project", if that dunks your crumpet.
    - sneak 6y ago
      Being involved in conflicts where hundreds or thousands die is mostly preferable to being involved in wars where tens or hundreds of thousands die. Overall violent death is down on planet Earth drastically over time.
      - engineer_22 6y ago
        Food for thought: The Wars in the Congo are a counter example. 2nd Congo War is thought to have caused 5.4 million deaths and officially ended in 2003, just 18 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War
        xxpor 6y ago
        Arguably that's the exception that proves the rule. Note how none of the great powers were really that involved (outside of the US providing "advisors").
    - CapriciousCptl 6y ago
      It’s like the big brother who says, “nobody can tease my sister except me.” There’s less teasing— he’s the only one doing it. But I’m with you, on balance wmds are terrible things. One use of them could outweigh all the violence they prevented.
    - ericb 6y ago
      It seems relatively peaceful: https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace
- Dirlewanger 6y ago
  I mean, America being the world police is a meme, but also has some truth to it...
  - consumer451 6y ago
    > but also has some truth to it... That is one heck of an understatement.[0] The global economic benefit of the stability brought by the US military being top-dog is vast, and appears to benefit many countries including China. There are plenty of valid criticisms of Pax Americana, but the global economic benefit, not so much imho. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana
    - tolbish 6y ago
      The existence of the US hegemony is no secret. The only debate surrounds its longevity. The accepted tipping point is when its massive salaries start to even out with the rest of the world, with COVID-19 acting as a catalyst.
      - xxpor 6y ago
        Why would US salaries start to even out with the rest of the world? On a per capita basis, our GDP is still massively higher than every other large country.
        webmaven 6y ago
        > Why would US salaries start to even out with the rest of the world? On a per capita basis, our GDP is still massively higher than every other large country. The hypothesis is that if most high compensation workers are remote, it opens up those labor markets to more competition from lower cost regions. IOW, as Covid-19 forces organizations to become remote-first, they perforce also become more outsourcing-friendly, or at least outsourcing-capable.
        kube-system 6y ago
paganel 6y ago
> There’s also the fact that a war between China and Taiwan is almost certainly going to go hot with the USA too, possibly leading to nuclear exchanges… There was an article in The Economist a couple of weeks ago saying that that may no longer be the case, I mean the US automatically siding with Taiwan in case of China's aggression. Take that as you will, I looked at it as an establishment mouthpiece airing valid concerns that some members of said establishment have regarding US's "seriousness" in the region.
- T-A 6y ago
  This, I guess: https://www.economist.com/china/2021/02/20/china-faces-fateful-choices-especially-involving-taiwan https://www.economist.com/china/2021/02/20/china-faces-fatef... Seems to me it's concerned about "America’s ability to deter an invasion over Taiwan", not about it "showing resolve when talking about China and Taiwan".
  - paganel 6y ago
    Not being able means not being willing at this level, meaning geopolitics and given the US’s existing financial means.
scoopertrooper 6y ago
Also worth noting that TSMC is about to build an 5nm fab in America. https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2021/02/16/why-tsmcs-arizona-fab-is-strategic-for-techs-future-in-the-us/?sh=de73dd91c8a7 https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2021/02/16/why-tsmcs...
- GoOnThenDoTell 6y ago
  By the time it’s finished, 3nm will be what we really want for the high end
  - scoopertrooper 6y ago
    Perhaps, but I am sure a lot of the equipment is transferable between processes.
sgt101 6y ago
Maybe China could go for a double tap - limited flagged strikes with the calculation that the USA would refrain from involvement or 1-1 retaliate (which China could eat). Wait 18 mths for the chip shortage to erode capability and then really go for it.

tomerico 6y ago

I wonder how many countries today are not in war simply because of fear of retaliation from the USA.

sneak 6y ago
Say what you (or Kubrick) will about mutually assured destruction, it sure does seem to have prevented a lot of violence, despite also seeming totally insane.
- monadic7 6y ago
  I never got that logic—the US has been in armed conflict in various forms since the end of WWII, whether directly or through the CIA. It seems more like nukes enable violence from my perspective.
  - throwaway6734 6y ago
    The world was a much more violent place before pax americana.
    - sangnoir 6y ago
      > The world was a much more violent place before pax americana. Europe, for sure is a lot less violent, as for the rest of the world? I won't believe that on face value; south America specifically got more violent, and I suspect everywhere else is a wash (or is not attributable to American force projection). I attribute the peace in Europe to the EU rather than pax Americana.
      - throwaway6734 6y ago
        The EU was founded in 1993.
        sangnoir 6y ago
        A company named "Apple, Inc." didn't exist prior to 2007 either - that's just splitting hairs, IMO, a rose by any other name &tc, &tc. I assumed anyone who has passing familiarity with Europe's history and WWII knew exactly what I meant by "EU" - you may read it as "the European project", if that dunks your crumpet.
  - sneak 6y ago
    Being involved in conflicts where hundreds or thousands die is mostly preferable to being involved in wars where tens or hundreds of thousands die. Overall violent death is down on planet Earth drastically over time.
    - engineer_22 6y ago
      Food for thought: The Wars in the Congo are a counter example. 2nd Congo War is thought to have caused 5.4 million deaths and officially ended in 2003, just 18 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War
      - xxpor 6y ago
        Arguably that's the exception that proves the rule. Note how none of the great powers were really that involved (outside of the US providing "advisors").
  - CapriciousCptl 6y ago
    It’s like the big brother who says, “nobody can tease my sister except me.” There’s less teasing— he’s the only one doing it. But I’m with you, on balance wmds are terrible things. One use of them could outweigh all the violence they prevented.
  - ericb 6y ago
    It seems relatively peaceful: https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace
Dirlewanger 6y ago
I mean, America being the world police is a meme, but also has some truth to it...
- consumer451 6y ago
  > but also has some truth to it... That is one heck of an understatement.[0] The global economic benefit of the stability brought by the US military being top-dog is vast, and appears to benefit many countries including China. There are plenty of valid criticisms of Pax Americana, but the global economic benefit, not so much imho. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana
  - tolbish 6y ago
    The existence of the US hegemony is no secret. The only debate surrounds its longevity. The accepted tipping point is when its massive salaries start to even out with the rest of the world, with COVID-19 acting as a catalyst.
    - xxpor 6y ago
      Why would US salaries start to even out with the rest of the world? On a per capita basis, our GDP is still massively higher than every other large country.
      - webmaven 6y ago
        > Why would US salaries start to even out with the rest of the world? On a per capita basis, our GDP is still massively higher than every other large country. The hypothesis is that if most high compensation workers are remote, it opens up those labor markets to more competition from lower cost regions. IOW, as Covid-19 forces organizations to become remote-first, they perforce also become more outsourcing-friendly, or at least outsourcing-capable.
        kube-system 6y ago

paganel 6y ago

> There’s also the fact that a war between China and Taiwan is almost certainly going to go hot with the USA too, possibly leading to nuclear exchanges… There was an article in The Economist a couple of weeks ago saying that that may no longer be the case, I mean the US automatically siding with Taiwan in case of China's aggression. Take that as you will, I looked at it as an establishment mouthpiece airing valid concerns that some members of said establishment have regarding US's "seriousness" in the region.

T-A 6y ago
This, I guess: https://www.economist.com/china/2021/02/20/china-faces-fateful-choices-especially-involving-taiwan https://www.economist.com/china/2021/02/20/china-faces-fatef... Seems to me it's concerned about "America’s ability to deter an invasion over Taiwan", not about it "showing resolve when talking about China and Taiwan".
- paganel 6y ago
  Not being able means not being willing at this level, meaning geopolitics and given the US’s existing financial means.

scoopertrooper 6y ago

Also worth noting that TSMC is about to build an 5nm fab in America. https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2021/02/16/why-tsmcs-arizona-fab-is-strategic-for-techs-future-in-the-us/?sh=de73dd91c8a7 https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2021/02/16/why-tsmcs...

GoOnThenDoTell 6y ago
By the time it’s finished, 3nm will be what we really want for the high end
- scoopertrooper 6y ago
  Perhaps, but I am sure a lot of the equipment is transferable between processes.

sgt101 6y ago

Maybe China could go for a double tap - limited flagged strikes with the calculation that the USA would refrain from involvement or 1-1 retaliate (which China could eat). Wait 18 mths for the chip shortage to erode capability and then really go for it.