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> I won't respond to every point fair enough > There is 100% chance of economic calamity if there is an external shock. It was only in 1929 that things got s

by 1996 6y ago

> I won't respond to every point fair enough > There is 100% chance of economic calamity if there is an external shock. It was only in 1929 that things got serious, and a lot of people believe the government wanton destructions of goods and forced price policy only made the crisis longer. Personally, I believe it was due to technological progress: before, governments couldn't easily enforce their will due to lack of efficient long distance communications, organized police forces, etc. > else prices get weird That's for sure, but it remains to be seen how much of a problem this "weirdness" could be, with modern technology (like electronic labels) > I would rather trust the a poorly managed 'World Bank Dollar' that maps 'Global Dollars' to assets in some roughly transparent way, then a 'distributed network of numbers' - which is basically ridiculous So far in your arguments I have mostly noticed opinions, which are plausible and debatable. However, this is plain wrong. Value does not come from an external authority (when it attempts to, Gresham law applies!) but from a coordinated opinion at the society level. US Dollars are worth keeping in Argentina not because of the US military might, or the Argentinian goverment orders (which does everything it can to limit dollarization) but because people seems to agree that it does a good job in being both a unit of account and a store of value. Eventually, people will learn to skip the middleman. This is what's already happening in India and even more so in Nigeria: look at how the remittances seen by the regular banking sector shrunk to nothing, and how these governments are now attacking crypto. I think it proves most people do not share your trust in systems. This is why I follow with great interest the robinhood/gamestop saga: when these idle hands will realize the game is crooked, they will move to crypto. They will start noticing interesting profits, and it will be the beginning of the end for the existing fiat system. The pandemic, causing boredom and excess cash, is certainly precipitating the outcome. > Finally, none of this is to say that BTC won't take hold. If enough people want to use it for whatever, it will be used for that whatever And you are totally correct. I try to limit my discussions with nocoiners on HN (it's sterile), except to understand their arguments. Your argumentation is more solid that most people, but based on opinions (inflation is good, monetary policy is good) that may not withstand the passing of time and technological changes.

jariel 6y ago
If you cannot 'trust the system' then nothing works - there is no avoiding it, everything breaks down. If you do not want to accept USD for reasons relating to 'trust' then there is no way to effectively exchange with the US economy - other than by using something else that has value. Like maybe Oil. (FYI if the US was small, you could use the currency of a different nation). It has nothing to do with armies, power, or even really the petro dollar. Crypto solves absolutely nothing - there is not a single benefit to anything related to BTC, other than experimental value. There is no rationality whatsoever in a convention of regarding the 'exchange of numbers'. The 'way forward' is to build systems with integrity, because we depend on them - there is no avoiding the fact we need a credible Medical system, Justice system, Monetary system, Regulatory system etc. The 'libertarian/trustless' notion behind BTC is without foundation, it's completely irrational. If Argentinians want to trade with Americans then they have to qualify the value of that trade with how much they 'trust' Americans and their system and there is no way around that.
- 1996 6y ago
  > If you cannot 'trust the system' then nothing works - there is no avoiding it, everything breaks down. Except trustless systems > If you do not want to accept USD for reasons relating to 'trust' then there is no way to effectively exchange with the US economy You may not be familiar with how some people pay with Tide :) https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-are-criminals-stealing-tide-detergent-and-using-it-for-money/254631/ https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-are... https://nymag.com/news/features/tide-detergent-drugs-2013-1/ https://nymag.com/news/features/tide-detergent-drugs-2013-1/ From the article: > male addicts whose need to feed their habits can foster a kind of innovative streak. “They are smart. They are creative. This is the right attitude: not underestimating people, but realizing all humans are extremely smart and creative when push come to shove. > Crypto solves absolutely nothing - there is not a single benefit to anything related to BTC, other than experimental value Well, I'm retired. So are others. People buy stuff easily on the darknet. People can store value without fear of deflation. I see a lot benefits personally! You may dislike that some shady people got crazy rich - but they seem to like it. Ultimately, if you never took any risk and made sure to always follow all the laws and the government recommendations (buy insurance! etc.), you have condemned yourself to be working class at best. There are different degrees of shiny - you can work at a FANG, but if you need to work, you are working class. So be careful with what you say about them, as you may end up working for these people :) > The 'way forward' is to build systems with integrity, because we depend on them - there is no avoiding the fact we need a credible Medical system, Justice system, Monetary system, Regulatory system etc Sorry, but there is! When I need healthcare, I don't use the overpriced and bad quality US health system - I travel. For the monetary system, I may convert back some significant percentage in crypto before the next bullrun if I fear inflation. For the regulatory system, I shop around - it's likewise for everything: people adapt! Just look at the flow of illegal immigrants demonstrating with their feet that they do not depend on the country they were born! > The 'libertarian/trustless' notion behind BTC is without foundation, it's completely irrational. Whenever I see lots of people engaging in a behavior I consider "irrational", I question my understanding of their situation, not their rationality :) > If Argentinians want to trade with Americans then they have to qualify the value of that trade You misunderstand the role of USD in Argentina or other places- local people use it as a store of value to trade with other local people. The US is not involved - except for printing the dollar bills. This is the process of dollarization, when something else is used instead of the local official currency. In prisons, there is an official system in place, with grossly inflated prices - but cigarettes are used to trade.

by 1996 6y ago

jariel 6y ago

If you cannot 'trust the system' then nothing works - there is no avoiding it, everything breaks down. If you do not want to accept USD for reasons relating to 'trust' then there is no way to effectively exchange with the US economy - other than by using something else that has value. Like maybe Oil. (FYI if the US was small, you could use the currency of a different nation). It has nothing to do with armies, power, or even really the petro dollar. Crypto solves absolutely nothing - there is not a single benefit to anything related to BTC, other than experimental value. There is no rationality whatsoever in a convention of regarding the 'exchange of numbers'. The 'way forward' is to build systems with integrity, because we depend on them - there is no avoiding the fact we need a credible Medical system, Justice system, Monetary system, Regulatory system etc. The 'libertarian/trustless' notion behind BTC is without foundation, it's completely irrational. If Argentinians want to trade with Americans then they have to qualify the value of that trade with how much they 'trust' Americans and their system and there is no way around that.

1996 6y ago
> If you cannot 'trust the system' then nothing works - there is no avoiding it, everything breaks down. Except trustless systems > If you do not want to accept USD for reasons relating to 'trust' then there is no way to effectively exchange with the US economy You may not be familiar with how some people pay with Tide :) https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-are-criminals-stealing-tide-detergent-and-using-it-for-money/254631/ https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-are... https://nymag.com/news/features/tide-detergent-drugs-2013-1/ https://nymag.com/news/features/tide-detergent-drugs-2013-1/ From the article: > male addicts whose need to feed their habits can foster a kind of innovative streak. “They are smart. They are creative. This is the right attitude: not underestimating people, but realizing all humans are extremely smart and creative when push come to shove. > Crypto solves absolutely nothing - there is not a single benefit to anything related to BTC, other than experimental value Well, I'm retired. So are others. People buy stuff easily on the darknet. People can store value without fear of deflation. I see a lot benefits personally! You may dislike that some shady people got crazy rich - but they seem to like it. Ultimately, if you never took any risk and made sure to always follow all the laws and the government recommendations (buy insurance! etc.), you have condemned yourself to be working class at best. There are different degrees of shiny - you can work at a FANG, but if you need to work, you are working class. So be careful with what you say about them, as you may end up working for these people :) > The 'way forward' is to build systems with integrity, because we depend on them - there is no avoiding the fact we need a credible Medical system, Justice system, Monetary system, Regulatory system etc Sorry, but there is! When I need healthcare, I don't use the overpriced and bad quality US health system - I travel. For the monetary system, I may convert back some significant percentage in crypto before the next bullrun if I fear inflation. For the regulatory system, I shop around - it's likewise for everything: people adapt! Just look at the flow of illegal immigrants demonstrating with their feet that they do not depend on the country they were born! > The 'libertarian/trustless' notion behind BTC is without foundation, it's completely irrational. Whenever I see lots of people engaging in a behavior I consider "irrational", I question my understanding of their situation, not their rationality :) > If Argentinians want to trade with Americans then they have to qualify the value of that trade You misunderstand the role of USD in Argentina or other places- local people use it as a store of value to trade with other local people. The US is not involved - except for printing the dollar bills. This is the process of dollarization, when something else is used instead of the local official currency. In prisons, there is an official system in place, with grossly inflated prices - but cigarettes are used to trade.