3 ms·
to last billions of years. You yourself think that projecting the tens of millions place 64 years in the future is an absurd number of significant digits. How m
by rsheridan6 15y ago
to last billions of years. You yourself think that projecting the tens of millions place 64 years in the future is an absurd number of significant digits. How many significant digits do you think is appropriate in a time frame 100M years longer? Even the UN itself only purports to project population trends until 2300, which is far short of a billion years, as hubristic as it is.
Also, the UN projections have some unjustified assumptions. From page 7, under section C:
>Over the long run,
total fertility is projected to settle at 1.85 children
per woman in each country—in between the current rate for Northern America (which is just below replacement level) and the rate for Europe (which is currently well below). This figure is somewhat arbitrary
In the longer run they expect the growth rate of all countries to stabilize at 0:
>The eventually similar growth between more
developed and less developed regions is produced
by similar long-range assumptions, especially the
assumptions that fertility will fall in all countries
below replacement (in the medium scenario) and
rebound to replacement after a period largely
similar across countries of a century or so. Starting their fertility declines later, less developed
regions will reach low fertility levels after more
developed regions but also stay at these levels
until a later date.
Of course population stabilizes at a rate not too much higher than the present rate if you assume fertility rates converge around the replacement level. Garbage in, garbage out.