3 ms·
> along the way, there were hundreds of decisions made that could have gone the wrong way. And probably and equal amount of decisions that could have turned ou
by jinjin2 6y ago
> along the way, there were hundreds of decisions made that could have gone the wrong way.
And probably and equal amount of decisions that could have turned out better.
So rather than being the result of one or two lucky or unlucky events, the final outcome is more likely to be the average of the quality of all the decisions over time.
- clairity 6y agono, it depends on the shape of the modeling function, and sociobiological functions are highly complex, possibly unknowable, but certainly not a simple linear function around which decisions revert to the same mean. for instance, consider success to be a knowable function (like y = ax^2 + bx + c ). luck would be like having high (initial) coefficients and constants through no effort of your own (e.g., being born into a wealthy, connected family). hard work and good decisions might allow you to increase (or decrease through neglect/bad decisions) these coefficients at the margin, but the relative advantage often remains many multiples of the disadvantaged.