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>but it will certainly cut into SpaceX's cake once it is online. Doubtful. And that isn't a knock against Rocket Lab, targeting a different niche is smart busi
by xoa 6y ago
>but it will certainly cut into SpaceX's cake once it is online.
Doubtful. And that isn't a knock against Rocket Lab, targeting a different niche is smart business, but still doubtful. Because the target of any rocket under development right now that wants to directly compete with SpaceX can't be F9, it needs to be Starship. The fundamentals along with the iterative capability and in-house demand built into the core of the design plan indicate they're going to be about to push costs below $200/kg and eventually even below $100/kg, along with enormous other sets of capabilities. That will represent just a mind blowing paradigm shift in cost to LEO, and SpaceX will probably want to retire F9 completely as soon as they're done with contracts and SS/SH is fully certified.
Rocket Lab should still be able to find a healthy market, like now, for customers who want specific orbits and times for smaller payloads that don't line up well with ride sharing on a big rocket. But it just won't be in the same market slice at all. Which is fine! The entire space market is set to grow a lot, no zero-sum games for a good long while, and in a growing market there can be room for many players to grow together. But everyone not on the leading edge is going to have to stay nimble.
- bryanlarsen 6y agoNeutron is fully reusable, just like Starship. It'll have similar price efficiencies. I expect Neutron eventually to be cheaper than Electron. Edit: acd10j says I misread. I still think they're working on full reusability, but that's just my guess, not an announcement.
- xoa 6y agoThere is a lot more to Starship than just full reusability, and "full reusability" encompasses a lot of variables too. How quick is turnaround? What sort of refurb is required? How many times is it reusable? For SS/SH construction is also cheap, the raptor is a really efficient engine, they will have high cadence given a lot of room for mass manufacturing efficiency gains, they're intended to be durable, and even the fuel is really cheap. Methalox is really economical to work with, and fuel definitely matters for a fully reusable design aimed at lowering costs as much as possible. RP-1 isn't cheap, and also has coking issues unlike methane. Of course with Neutron not expected to launch, even under Rocket Lab's target, before 2024 they may have answers for a lot of this. I see nothing about fuel for example, maybe they've been working on their own great methalox design. But either way, F9 isn't going to be the comparison by the time they really get going.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- fiftyfifty 6y agoI’ve got to think that Rocket Lab’s announcement came earlier than planned because of this announcement by Relativity Space a few days ago: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/relativitys-reusable-terran-rocket-competitor-to-spacexs-falcon-9.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/relativitys-reusable-terran-... Relativity is claiming to be working on a fully reusable, Methalox burning, competitor to the Falcon 9. Of course Relativity has yet to put something into space so Rocket Lab seems better positioned but these companies are all competing for the same funding and launch contracts so they can’t sit back and let another company steal the lime light for long. Really exciting times in the space industry, the US could have four different companies making reusable rockets in the next 5-10 years.
- NortySpock 6y agoThanks for posting this. I was unaware they had shifted their strategy towards reusability.
- fiftyfifty 6y agoI think both Rocket Lab and Relativity Space realize that even with 3d printing they can't compete on price without reusability. If SpaceX is even close to hitting their costs per launch with Starship/Superheavy they can undercut everyone, even to launch small satellites. SpaceX is shooting for $2 million per launch with Starship, that's cheaper than Electron today and Relativity Space's Terran 1 is planned to cost. Heck for small sats SpaceX could probably put them into orbit with just Starship and a kicker stage and not even have to fire up Superheavy.
- acd10j 6y agoI Just read this press release, Only first stage of Neutron is reusable like Falcon 9. So No it will not be fully reusable like Star-ship. Relevant paragraph: The medium-lift Neutron rocket will be a two-stage launch vehicle that stands 40 meters (131 feet) tall with a 4.5-meter (14.7 ft) diameter fairing and a lift capacity of up to 8,000 kg (8 metric tons) to low-Earth orbit, 2,000 kg to the Moon (2 metric tons), and 1,500 kg to Mars and Venus (1.5 metric tons). Neutron will feature a reusable first stage designed to land on an ocean platform, enabling a high launch cadence and decreased launch costs for customers. Initially designed for satellite payloads, Neutron will also be capable of International Space Station (ISS) resupply and human spaceflight missions.