6 ms·

What's worse is that Taiwan will be next. Anyone who's counting on UN stepping in and preventing it is just fooling themselves.

agd 6y ago
Chinese friends tell me that the gov is increasing anti Taiwan propaganda over time - representing the Taiwanese as people who hate the mainland and who think that they’re superior. We’re getting to a position where the domestic Chinese population would support an invasion. I’m concerned for the future.
dbuder 6y ago
TSMC will be defended.
- bitcharmer 6y ago
  Yes, until US builds the same manufacturing potential on-shore.
pcr910303 6y ago
For that to happen, China Italy has to start a war. HK was under control of mainland China since 1997, Taiwan isn’t. They have a separate government. Similar to South/North Korea.
saberdancer 6y ago
UN is not preventing China taking over Taiwan. US Navy and Taiwanese F-16s are.
- bitcharmer 6y ago
  Only until TSMC becomes irrelevant because US will have gained the same manufacturing capabilities.
  - yostrovs 6y ago
    The defense agreement has been around before TSMC became a superpower in chip making.
  - rich_sasha 6y ago
    Pegging China to a wrangle around Taiwan presumably keeps them away from other strategic disputes, ones more directly affecting the US, even if TSMC is out of the game.
  - saberdancer 6y ago
    The agreement is not because of TSMC but US projection of power. By having close allies in Taiwan they effectively have a huge military presence in China's backyard. I doubt this will change any time soon.
- CapricornNoble 6y ago
  And the PRC has a deliberate strategy to basically "fly the wings" off of the Taiwanese F-16s via constant airspace incursions, degrading the ROCAF to the point where eventually they won't be a credible deterrent to invasion. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/26/asia-pacific/taiwan-military-china/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/26/asia-pacific/ta...
ericmay 6y ago
I don’t think so. Taiwan is a whole different ball game and literally has a military to put up some measure of defense. Hong Kong was legally going back to China at some point. There was no question of that. China accelerated the process. I certainly have my own opinions on that, but it’s not comparable to Taiwan. And you’re right about the UN. They won’t do jack. (Remember China and Russia are permanent members). The United States might (alongside strong allies in the region, but maybe not), however. Taiwan is strategic at this point as a source of chip manufacturing among other things. The Chinese won’t do anything.
- bluGill 6y ago
  Hong Kong went back in 1997. That China left them alone this long is a surprise, not an acceleration.
  - ericmay 6y ago
    It’s both. It’s a surprise as you indicated, but the agreement was that things should be left in place for a longer period of time (the acceleration part). China has thrown that part of the agreement out of the window, despite protests from the U.K. and others. Personally, I think the anglosphere should allow Hong Kong citizens to relocate to their countries.
    - AYBABTME 6y ago
      I wonder what UK's strategy was when they made that decision. It was clear they'd have no leverage in enforcing the agreement. I've also always wondered why there was so much investments in HK based on expectation that the status-quo would prevail. I feel really bad for the situation and what it suggests about the future. Yet I can't help but feel this was inevitable. Taiwan however seems a couple orders of magnitude less likely on the short/medium term, I believe, unless the US loses it's edge quite dramatically. That's all just my speculation.
      - rich_sasha 6y ago
rich_sasha 6y ago
History and geopolitics only look stable over short periods of time. Look over any 100 year period at any region, and you'll find cruelty, injustice, wars. You'll see metastable statii quo, which hold against all odds, but only for so long. You'll also see hope, perseverance, prevailing against evil. Does an independent Taiwan right next to budding superpower China look stable? Not really. But then, Soviet Union looked like it's taking over the world a fair few times, not to mention Japan, or actual one-time superpowers UK and France. Or Italy, Spain, Germany... Lots of reasons to be alarmed and distressed, no reason to panic and give up.
spinny 6y ago
The Great Sleepy Savior, Joe Biden, will not allow that to happen (for free)
koonsolo 6y ago
Even when UN would not step in, invading Taiwan is not as easy as it sounds, even with the military power of the PRC.

agd 6y ago

Chinese friends tell me that the gov is increasing anti Taiwan propaganda over time - representing the Taiwanese as people who hate the mainland and who think that they’re superior. We’re getting to a position where the domestic Chinese population would support an invasion. I’m concerned for the future.

dbuder 6y ago

TSMC will be defended.

bitcharmer 6y ago
Yes, until US builds the same manufacturing potential on-shore.

pcr910303 6y ago

For that to happen, China Italy has to start a war. HK was under control of mainland China since 1997, Taiwan isn’t. They have a separate government. Similar to South/North Korea.

saberdancer 6y ago

UN is not preventing China taking over Taiwan. US Navy and Taiwanese F-16s are.

bitcharmer 6y ago
Only until TSMC becomes irrelevant because US will have gained the same manufacturing capabilities.
- yostrovs 6y ago
  The defense agreement has been around before TSMC became a superpower in chip making.
- rich_sasha 6y ago
  Pegging China to a wrangle around Taiwan presumably keeps them away from other strategic disputes, ones more directly affecting the US, even if TSMC is out of the game.
- saberdancer 6y ago
  The agreement is not because of TSMC but US projection of power. By having close allies in Taiwan they effectively have a huge military presence in China's backyard. I doubt this will change any time soon.
CapricornNoble 6y ago
And the PRC has a deliberate strategy to basically "fly the wings" off of the Taiwanese F-16s via constant airspace incursions, degrading the ROCAF to the point where eventually they won't be a credible deterrent to invasion. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/26/asia-pacific/taiwan-military-china/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/26/asia-pacific/ta...

ericmay 6y ago

I don’t think so. Taiwan is a whole different ball game and literally has a military to put up some measure of defense. Hong Kong was legally going back to China at some point. There was no question of that. China accelerated the process. I certainly have my own opinions on that, but it’s not comparable to Taiwan. And you’re right about the UN. They won’t do jack. (Remember China and Russia are permanent members). The United States might (alongside strong allies in the region, but maybe not), however. Taiwan is strategic at this point as a source of chip manufacturing among other things. The Chinese won’t do anything.

bluGill 6y ago
Hong Kong went back in 1997. That China left them alone this long is a surprise, not an acceleration.
- ericmay 6y ago
  It’s both. It’s a surprise as you indicated, but the agreement was that things should be left in place for a longer period of time (the acceleration part). China has thrown that part of the agreement out of the window, despite protests from the U.K. and others. Personally, I think the anglosphere should allow Hong Kong citizens to relocate to their countries.
  - AYBABTME 6y ago
    I wonder what UK's strategy was when they made that decision. It was clear they'd have no leverage in enforcing the agreement. I've also always wondered why there was so much investments in HK based on expectation that the status-quo would prevail. I feel really bad for the situation and what it suggests about the future. Yet I can't help but feel this was inevitable. Taiwan however seems a couple orders of magnitude less likely on the short/medium term, I believe, unless the US loses it's edge quite dramatically. That's all just my speculation.
    - rich_sasha 6y ago

rich_sasha 6y ago

History and geopolitics only look stable over short periods of time. Look over any 100 year period at any region, and you'll find cruelty, injustice, wars. You'll see metastable statii quo, which hold against all odds, but only for so long. You'll also see hope, perseverance, prevailing against evil. Does an independent Taiwan right next to budding superpower China look stable? Not really. But then, Soviet Union looked like it's taking over the world a fair few times, not to mention Japan, or actual one-time superpowers UK and France. Or Italy, Spain, Germany... Lots of reasons to be alarmed and distressed, no reason to panic and give up.

spinny 6y ago

The Great Sleepy Savior, Joe Biden, will not allow that to happen (for free)

koonsolo 6y ago

Even when UN would not step in, invading Taiwan is not as easy as it sounds, even with the military power of the PRC.