So one of my employees comes to me and says: assuming we can get widget X for a price of $y (or less), and do so consistently for time t, we can use some method

So one of my employees comes to me and says: assuming we can get widget X for a price of $y (or less), and do so consistently for time t, we can use some method to manfacture our frobulators, and still meet our price point, but get more long-term profit, because some TCO concerns. This is perfectly logical, but doesn't make sense given that the price of X this week is $y+1. More complicated: if we know the price or X varies between $y+2 and $y-1 in a random walk, can we find a way to capitalize on the 50% of states that meet the $y or less requirement. My employee does not know the price characteristics for X, so he presents the idea. I know that we cannot capitalize (from doing analysis of the price of X based on doing the arithmetic). So what my employee suggests is completely logical and reasonable, it just makes no sense, given the result of the arithmetic.