5 ms·

Is Bitcoin Worth $1M?

MavropaliasG 6y ago
If bitcoin is worth that much, then I can't image what Tezos would be worth. Both as a store of value (due to deflation over time and staking rewards), but also due to it being a utility token with far more capabilities than ETH or Cardano
- virgilp 6y ago
  The article actually addresses that, and the answer is "much, much less: see silver". Or in the case of Tezos, I guess it's something like, "see brass".
- Melting_Harps 6y ago
  WTF is Tezos, and how do you ascribe it's properties any where near to what Bitcoin has? Lookin at it's decription it looks like the same ICO pump and dump scam coin. And while I'm not entirely willing to dismiss a project's coin simply base don volatility alone, as BTC has certainly has/had that throughput its History, this is the first thing that came up [0] when I looked it up. bitcoin's (the token) function and value is from it's network (Bitcoin), the most secure network devised by man, which can execute a multitude of things on layer 1 and instant and near free txs on layer 2. What exactly does this tezor thing have that can even compare? I'm genuinely curious but despite that I'm not bothering to look up any further than I already have, as it is I stopped listening to the ETH crowds because they don't have a real idea of what, if anything, they can build after their claim to fame with crypto kitties and their coding lang is utter garbage: Solidity. 0: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/tezos-price-forecast-xtz-enters-reversal-model-after-explosive-40-sell-off-202102241414 https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/tezos-price-f...
malthaus 6y ago
No
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
sharkjacobs 6y ago
I think this is pretty well reasoned. Or, at least, it lays out the assumptions in use pretty well. TLDR: > Given the increased adoption of Bitcoin by major fintech players (Venmo and Cash App) and hedge funds, I think reasonably there is a greater than 5% chance of it succeeding [at becoming a non-sovereign, non-fiat, store-of-value asset]. This not only makes it a positive expected value bet, but one with an asymmetric payoff skew of -1x to 100x. This is akin to purchasing a lottery ticket, that earns you money on average. > If you think that the odds of Bitcoin successfully becoming a non-sovereign, non-fiat, store-of-value asset within the next 10 years is greater than [3% in the bull case and 19% in the bear case], you should invest in Bitcoin. > If you have accepted that Bitcoin’s net expected value is positive for the current price, then you should enter a position. However given that Bitcoin is an extremely speculative asset, then the best way to manage risk is through bet sizing. It should occupy a small proportion of your portfolio (1–5%), and it certainly shouldn’t be bought on margin.
- realitysballs 6y ago
  I believe Bitcoin is at the mercy of government regulation of energy sources. There is an underlying assumption that those who control energy distribution will continue to sell there electricity to miners. Yes, it makes sense economically but not environmentally and as long as California continues to have record breaking fires every summer and SE Asia gets slowly enveloped by rising ocean and cyclones there is a probability that economic policy will shift to align with environmental issues.
  - a5withtrrs 6y ago
    People have been looking at building data centers [1] under water because of the cooling benefits. No reason why rising oceans and cyclones would be a significant hurdle for a well financed operation. Bitcoin operators are already looking at commissioning their own power stations in order to get the juice required. Regulating the available commercial supply is fair and makes sense, it doesn't make sense to limit what people can build and operate on their own land for private use. [1] https://news.microsoft.com/innovation-stories/project-natick-underwater-datacenter/ https://news.microsoft.com/innovation-stories/project-natick...
realitysballs 6y ago
No, it is highly inefficient and incentivizes wasteful use of carbon-based fuels and renewables. Bitcoin has been successful creating a sound system for ensuring energy has been wasted during the validation and creation of a block but is it actually decentralized when the computational power needed to mine a block requires wattage that cannot be supplied with decentralized power-sources? This being said it seems somewhat absurd that Tesla invested so much and thereby wiped out a huge percentage of carbon they sought to offset through the use of there vehicles .
- Melting_Harps 6y ago
  > This being said it seems somewhat absurd that Tesla invested so much and thereby wiped out a huge percentage of carbon they sought to offset through the use of there vehicles . Is it? When BTC hit 58k this month it had brought in more in profit then thier core business did in all of 2020: car sales. If you have any idea at what you're looking at you'll realize Tesla isn't a car company, that it's MVP for it's battery and software tech, and they will likely get into in house financing (where auto manufacturing makes most of it's revenue-profit, as most OEMs typically lose money on car deliveries/sales) because of their investments with Bitcoin and maybe even get involved in mining given their advancement in hardware and chips as they will now have an excess amount of energy with that large battery and solar project, which they maximize their large footprints in all of their gigas and super charger networks, which could make Buffalo and all other Solarcity operations profitable, instead of liability on their balance sheet--the take over was clear nepotism, but could ultimately pay dividends in the end of they play their hand right. You're looking at this all wrong, with an obvious anti-bitcoin bend, but you fail to realize that Tesla will eventually follow Yamaha in its various business models and product line up. I can see them utilizing their resources and immense Human capital to start making miners given their supply chain and ties to Schenzen via Shangahi's gigafactory.
  - realitysballs 6y ago
    I am not commenting on the business strategy or battery technology Tesla is creating. However , you can’t deny that despite the fact that Bitcoin mines it’s coins using an estimated 30% renewables , 60% is non -renewables and there is no incentive baked into the system to prevent massive increases of carbon emissions until 2140 when Bitcoin is estimated to be completely mined. All I’m saying is Bitcoin is a fantastic crypto-asset for creating wealth in a quasi-decentralized fashion. So yes, if you are looking to make money it’s a great place to start. But I can’t see anyone refuting the fact that Bitcoin will continually and at an increasing rate route massive quantities of carbon into our atmosphere. And/or waste incredible amounts of renewable energy which could have been used for better purposes. So I believe that it is logically contradictory of Tesla’s ethical branding to make that type of investment when there are plenty of Proof-of-stake based crypto’s out there with 10-100x energy-efficiency rates.
neatze 6y ago
There is cost for storing bitcoin in terms of security risk (thefts and disasters) and network risk (mining power, network fracture), in addition to, energy cost. What article does not mentions is case of: Black Friday, in U.S. history, Sept. 24, 1869, when plummeting gold prices precipitated a securities market panic. The crash was a consequence of an attempt by financier Jay Gould and railway magnate James Fisk to corner the gold market and drive up the price. Source: https://www.britannica.com/event/Black-Friday https://www.britannica.com/event/Black-Friday Question is; how bitcoin is protected against market cornering ?
ykevinator 6y ago
Only Bitcoin speculators use Bitcoin, it's fiction.

If bitcoin is worth that much, then I can't image what Tezos would be worth. Both as a store of value (due to deflation over time and staking rewards), but also due to it being a utility token with far more capabilities than ETH or Cardano

virgilp 6y ago
The article actually addresses that, and the answer is "much, much less: see silver". Or in the case of Tezos, I guess it's something like, "see brass".
Melting_Harps 6y ago
WTF is Tezos, and how do you ascribe it's properties any where near to what Bitcoin has? Lookin at it's decription it looks like the same ICO pump and dump scam coin. And while I'm not entirely willing to dismiss a project's coin simply base don volatility alone, as BTC has certainly has/had that throughput its History, this is the first thing that came up [0] when I looked it up. bitcoin's (the token) function and value is from it's network (Bitcoin), the most secure network devised by man, which can execute a multitude of things on layer 1 and instant and near free txs on layer 2. What exactly does this tezor thing have that can even compare? I'm genuinely curious but despite that I'm not bothering to look up any further than I already have, as it is I stopped listening to the ETH crowds because they don't have a real idea of what, if anything, they can build after their claim to fame with crypto kitties and their coding lang is utter garbage: Solidity. 0: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/tezos-price-forecast-xtz-enters-reversal-model-after-explosive-40-sell-off-202102241414 https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/tezos-price-f...

malthaus 6y ago

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

sharkjacobs 6y ago

I think this is pretty well reasoned. Or, at least, it lays out the assumptions in use pretty well. TLDR: > Given the increased adoption of Bitcoin by major fintech players (Venmo and Cash App) and hedge funds, I think reasonably there is a greater than 5% chance of it succeeding [at becoming a non-sovereign, non-fiat, store-of-value asset]. This not only makes it a positive expected value bet, but one with an asymmetric payoff skew of -1x to 100x. This is akin to purchasing a lottery ticket, that earns you money on average. > If you think that the odds of Bitcoin successfully becoming a non-sovereign, non-fiat, store-of-value asset within the next 10 years is greater than [3% in the bull case and 19% in the bear case], you should invest in Bitcoin. > If you have accepted that Bitcoin’s net expected value is positive for the current price, then you should enter a position. However given that Bitcoin is an extremely speculative asset, then the best way to manage risk is through bet sizing. It should occupy a small proportion of your portfolio (1–5%), and it certainly shouldn’t be bought on margin.

realitysballs 6y ago
I believe Bitcoin is at the mercy of government regulation of energy sources. There is an underlying assumption that those who control energy distribution will continue to sell there electricity to miners. Yes, it makes sense economically but not environmentally and as long as California continues to have record breaking fires every summer and SE Asia gets slowly enveloped by rising ocean and cyclones there is a probability that economic policy will shift to align with environmental issues.
- a5withtrrs 6y ago
  People have been looking at building data centers [1] under water because of the cooling benefits. No reason why rising oceans and cyclones would be a significant hurdle for a well financed operation. Bitcoin operators are already looking at commissioning their own power stations in order to get the juice required. Regulating the available commercial supply is fair and makes sense, it doesn't make sense to limit what people can build and operate on their own land for private use. [1] https://news.microsoft.com/innovation-stories/project-natick-underwater-datacenter/ https://news.microsoft.com/innovation-stories/project-natick...

realitysballs 6y ago

No, it is highly inefficient and incentivizes wasteful use of carbon-based fuels and renewables. Bitcoin has been successful creating a sound system for ensuring energy has been wasted during the validation and creation of a block but is it actually decentralized when the computational power needed to mine a block requires wattage that cannot be supplied with decentralized power-sources? This being said it seems somewhat absurd that Tesla invested so much and thereby wiped out a huge percentage of carbon they sought to offset through the use of there vehicles .

Melting_Harps 6y ago
> This being said it seems somewhat absurd that Tesla invested so much and thereby wiped out a huge percentage of carbon they sought to offset through the use of there vehicles . Is it? When BTC hit 58k this month it had brought in more in profit then thier core business did in all of 2020: car sales. If you have any idea at what you're looking at you'll realize Tesla isn't a car company, that it's MVP for it's battery and software tech, and they will likely get into in house financing (where auto manufacturing makes most of it's revenue-profit, as most OEMs typically lose money on car deliveries/sales) because of their investments with Bitcoin and maybe even get involved in mining given their advancement in hardware and chips as they will now have an excess amount of energy with that large battery and solar project, which they maximize their large footprints in all of their gigas and super charger networks, which could make Buffalo and all other Solarcity operations profitable, instead of liability on their balance sheet--the take over was clear nepotism, but could ultimately pay dividends in the end of they play their hand right. You're looking at this all wrong, with an obvious anti-bitcoin bend, but you fail to realize that Tesla will eventually follow Yamaha in its various business models and product line up. I can see them utilizing their resources and immense Human capital to start making miners given their supply chain and ties to Schenzen via Shangahi's gigafactory.
- realitysballs 6y ago
  I am not commenting on the business strategy or battery technology Tesla is creating. However , you can’t deny that despite the fact that Bitcoin mines it’s coins using an estimated 30% renewables , 60% is non -renewables and there is no incentive baked into the system to prevent massive increases of carbon emissions until 2140 when Bitcoin is estimated to be completely mined. All I’m saying is Bitcoin is a fantastic crypto-asset for creating wealth in a quasi-decentralized fashion. So yes, if you are looking to make money it’s a great place to start. But I can’t see anyone refuting the fact that Bitcoin will continually and at an increasing rate route massive quantities of carbon into our atmosphere. And/or waste incredible amounts of renewable energy which could have been used for better purposes. So I believe that it is logically contradictory of Tesla’s ethical branding to make that type of investment when there are plenty of Proof-of-stake based crypto’s out there with 10-100x energy-efficiency rates.

neatze 6y ago

There is cost for storing bitcoin in terms of security risk (thefts and disasters) and network risk (mining power, network fracture), in addition to, energy cost. What article does not mentions is case of: Black Friday, in U.S. history, Sept. 24, 1869, when plummeting gold prices precipitated a securities market panic. The crash was a consequence of an attempt by financier Jay Gould and railway magnate James Fisk to corner the gold market and drive up the price. Source: https://www.britannica.com/event/Black-Friday https://www.britannica.com/event/Black-Friday Question is; how bitcoin is protected against market cornering ?

ykevinator 6y ago

Only Bitcoin speculators use Bitcoin, it's fiction.