"2. Bitcoin's quasi-anonymous nature will be highly desirable to many people, including very large criminal organizations who'll definitely be moving those coin

"2. Bitcoin's quasi-anonymous nature will be highly desirable to many people, including very large criminal organizations who'll definitely be moving those coins." Acceptance of a currency is a tricky thing. For less-than-legal uses, you need someone willing to launder the money at some point. Your arms dealer isn't going to take bitcoin unless they can exchange it for a widely accepted currency or pay their supplier in bitcoin, and the supplier won't take bitcoin unless they can buy raw materials with bitcoin, and the mine isn't going to take bitcoin unless they can exchange it for something useful to them. Breaking out of the cycle is much easier with a currency that is accepted by everyone for everything. With dollars, just set up a restaurant, people pay in dollars in those, and there are more legitimate restaurants than money-laundering restaurants (in most places). You'd need enough legitimate use of bitcoins to hide laundering, and it's not clear to me that will ever happen.