I think a better example might be: 1. 10% chance of returning 100%, 90% chance of 0% 2. 90% chance of returning 10%, 10% chance of 0% Same expected value in

I think a better example might be: 1. 10% chance of returning 100%, 90% chance of 0% 2. 90% chance of returning 10%, 10% chance of 0% Same expected value in year 1, but totally different proposition. And, with compounding returns, the expected value over time is very different.