5 ms·

I expect more and more people are going to live in vans, buy tiny houses etc. Housing prices across the world are insane, rental prices are even worse (though C

by akudha 6y ago

I expect more and more people are going to live in vans, buy tiny houses etc. Housing prices across the world are insane, rental prices are even worse (though Covid has put a temporary brake on rents/prices, it will go back up soon enough). And wages aren't rising, and rental companies buying up properties every chance they get. Something needs to change. Why screw oneself with a 30 year mortgage, plus property taxes, plus constant maintenance headaches? And deal with shitty HOA too, in some places. Maybe this is a good way to silently protest and force progressive housing policy changes.

mym1990 6y ago
While I see some of your point, it goes without saying that vanlife or smaller dwellings will still have maintenance and overhead. You can trade the HOA for gas costs and campground fees(across the US at least unless you're on public land). The vehicle will breakdown, the vehicle will get broken into, etc, etc... With a more remote workforce now on the long term horizon, why not just move to a cheaper city rather completely jumping off the proverbial cliff? (This comment is coming from someone who is considering van life and I have also spent some extended periods of time working and living out of my vehicle).
- akudha 6y ago
  Yeah, true. But there is a big difference between maintaining a three bedroom house (or apartment) and a tiny house. Van life is probably much harder (just guessing, I haven't done it), so it will probably not be as widespread as tiny houses. Remote work might not be possible for everyone. Personally, moving to a cheaper city would be my first choice, followed by tiny house. All of these have pros and cons. But for many people in their 20s/30s, buying a house might never be an option at all, simply because they can't afford it. Unless progressive policies are implemented, we can expect major housing crisis soon. People want their home's value to continuously increase, they see their home as an investment first - instead of seeing it as a place to live, first. I dunno what the solution is, but I don't think this situation can continue.
- dredmorbius 6y ago
  A cheap home base + a van seems like a flexible option. You've got low overhead but the option to hit the road for on-location gigs or when the wanderlust kicks in. A co-housing arrangement might make the base more tractable.
Erlich_Bachman 6y ago
> Housing prices across the world are insane, They only are insane if you insist on living centrally in large cities. Which you can't do anyway if you live in a van. So it's hard to give a lot of weight to this prediction.
- randomsearch 6y ago
  I think they’re just insane generally. Almost everywhere in the U.K., housing is much more expensive than the cost of building it. This is really beginning to concern me. I think we’ve created a fake plastic economy built on face plastic house prices. By stoking the bubble, the purchase and renovation of housing keeps pushing money through the economy. By constantly remortgaging, new value is “created” which allows people to have a new kitchen, go on holiday, buy a car, extend their house. But it feels like a trick to me. I’m not an economist, but where’s the wealth creation here? As a result of the forever rising prices, foreign investors buy properties, often leaving them empty. They see the game the government is playing and exploit it. Feels like the U.K. government doesn’t have a Plan B. They don’t know how to create a strong economy so they turn to retail and the housing market. Surely the wheels have to fall off at some point?
  - ptrincr 6y ago
    > This is really beginning to concern me. I think we’ve created a fake plastic economy built on face plastic house prices. By stoking the bubble, the purchase and renovation of housing keeps pushing money through the economy. This has been an issue for a long time now. There should have been a crash in 2008/2009 but instead the government in the UK decided to prop up house prices with various schemes. I'm not saying this is right or wrong, for many people, house owners and people looking to purchase, this helped people stay out of negative equity/allowed people to purchase their own home. > By constantly remortgaging, new value is “created” which allows people to have a new kitchen, go on holiday, buy a car, extend their house. But it feels like a trick to me. I’m not an economist, but where’s the wealth creation here? I'm not sure remortgaging is creating new value. All money is loaned into existence, remortgaging is just creating new debt secured on your home. It still has to be paid back. People could still get loans, just not perhaps at the same favorable rate. There has been a lot of money printing over the past 10 years or so, I think rising house prices are a natural result of that. I think it's more of a case of decreasing purchasing power of the £ in your pocket, rather than homes rising in value. Have a look at this chart when house prices are compared with gold[0]. It's also a function of the availability of loans, since now you can borrow cheaply over long periods, this increases the total amount people are able to borrow, as it's much easier to service the debt. What's more surprising to me is that we're not really seeing inflation in other areas of the economy, such as wages or consumer goods. Inflation has been surprising low since the crisis of 2008/2009. [0] http://pricedingold.com/uk-house-prices/ http://pricedingold.com/uk-house-prices/
legulere 6y ago
The problem is not the cost of houses, but the cost of land in desirable locations. Van living and tiny houses don’t solve those problems and most people are still bound to their city jobs.
shrubble 6y ago
Starlink internet may be the catalyst for an exodus from the cities(even though many smaller cities and towns do have good enough internet). Or at least a re-examination , given that so many are working from home.

by akudha 6y ago

mym1990 6y ago

While I see some of your point, it goes without saying that vanlife or smaller dwellings will still have maintenance and overhead. You can trade the HOA for gas costs and campground fees(across the US at least unless you're on public land). The vehicle will breakdown, the vehicle will get broken into, etc, etc... With a more remote workforce now on the long term horizon, why not just move to a cheaper city rather completely jumping off the proverbial cliff? (This comment is coming from someone who is considering van life and I have also spent some extended periods of time working and living out of my vehicle).

akudha 6y ago
Yeah, true. But there is a big difference between maintaining a three bedroom house (or apartment) and a tiny house. Van life is probably much harder (just guessing, I haven't done it), so it will probably not be as widespread as tiny houses. Remote work might not be possible for everyone. Personally, moving to a cheaper city would be my first choice, followed by tiny house. All of these have pros and cons. But for many people in their 20s/30s, buying a house might never be an option at all, simply because they can't afford it. Unless progressive policies are implemented, we can expect major housing crisis soon. People want their home's value to continuously increase, they see their home as an investment first - instead of seeing it as a place to live, first. I dunno what the solution is, but I don't think this situation can continue.
dredmorbius 6y ago
A cheap home base + a van seems like a flexible option. You've got low overhead but the option to hit the road for on-location gigs or when the wanderlust kicks in. A co-housing arrangement might make the base more tractable.

Erlich_Bachman 6y ago

> Housing prices across the world are insane, They only are insane if you insist on living centrally in large cities. Which you can't do anyway if you live in a van. So it's hard to give a lot of weight to this prediction.

randomsearch 6y ago
I think they’re just insane generally. Almost everywhere in the U.K., housing is much more expensive than the cost of building it. This is really beginning to concern me. I think we’ve created a fake plastic economy built on face plastic house prices. By stoking the bubble, the purchase and renovation of housing keeps pushing money through the economy. By constantly remortgaging, new value is “created” which allows people to have a new kitchen, go on holiday, buy a car, extend their house. But it feels like a trick to me. I’m not an economist, but where’s the wealth creation here? As a result of the forever rising prices, foreign investors buy properties, often leaving them empty. They see the game the government is playing and exploit it. Feels like the U.K. government doesn’t have a Plan B. They don’t know how to create a strong economy so they turn to retail and the housing market. Surely the wheels have to fall off at some point?
- ptrincr 6y ago
  > This is really beginning to concern me. I think we’ve created a fake plastic economy built on face plastic house prices. By stoking the bubble, the purchase and renovation of housing keeps pushing money through the economy. This has been an issue for a long time now. There should have been a crash in 2008/2009 but instead the government in the UK decided to prop up house prices with various schemes. I'm not saying this is right or wrong, for many people, house owners and people looking to purchase, this helped people stay out of negative equity/allowed people to purchase their own home. > By constantly remortgaging, new value is “created” which allows people to have a new kitchen, go on holiday, buy a car, extend their house. But it feels like a trick to me. I’m not an economist, but where’s the wealth creation here? I'm not sure remortgaging is creating new value. All money is loaned into existence, remortgaging is just creating new debt secured on your home. It still has to be paid back. People could still get loans, just not perhaps at the same favorable rate. There has been a lot of money printing over the past 10 years or so, I think rising house prices are a natural result of that. I think it's more of a case of decreasing purchasing power of the £ in your pocket, rather than homes rising in value. Have a look at this chart when house prices are compared with gold[0]. It's also a function of the availability of loans, since now you can borrow cheaply over long periods, this increases the total amount people are able to borrow, as it's much easier to service the debt. What's more surprising to me is that we're not really seeing inflation in other areas of the economy, such as wages or consumer goods. Inflation has been surprising low since the crisis of 2008/2009. [0] http://pricedingold.com/uk-house-prices/ http://pricedingold.com/uk-house-prices/

legulere 6y ago

The problem is not the cost of houses, but the cost of land in desirable locations. Van living and tiny houses don’t solve those problems and most people are still bound to their city jobs.

shrubble 6y ago

Starlink internet may be the catalyst for an exodus from the cities(even though many smaller cities and towns do have good enough internet). Or at least a re-examination , given that so many are working from home.