Well put. This goes to the essential unknowability of causality (Godel incompleteness) and the uncomputability of plans (Turing halting problem). I bet on a st

Well put. This goes to the essential unknowability of causality (Godel incompleteness) and the uncomputability of plans (Turing halting problem). I bet on a stock and it went up, I sold it made money. Just because betting on a stock made me money does not mean that my reasoning was correct. Furthermore, there is no way to really know why the stock went up. Even if I repeat this across many many trials, there is no amount of verification which will prove me right. McKinsey is a real world arbitrage on this but dressed up in expensive ivy league educations, $500/hr consulting fees and fancy gobbledegook which awes management. Munger, FWIW, says they never ever hire management consulting firms.