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I think it help to familiarize yourself with mental models. These are not going to explain the world, but they will give you a toolset to gauge and structure al

I think it help to familiarize yourself with mental models. These are not going to explain the world, but they will give you a toolset to gauge and structure all the information you'll collect along your journey. https://fs.blog/mental-models/ https://fs.blog/mental-models/ might be a good starting point.

forgotmypw17 6y ago
That is a great page. It's good to learn there's a name for what I described in my other comment: Bayesian Updating. >The Bayesian method is a method of thought (named for Thomas Bayes) whereby one takes into account all prior relevant probabilities and then incrementally updates them as newer information arrives. This method is especially productive given the fundamentally non-deterministic world we experience: We must use prior odds and new information in combination to arrive at our best decisions. This is not necessarily our intuitive decision-making engine.