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At the risk of going against the opinions of others on here, my personal belief is no one can really predict what will succeed and what will fail. Many will arg
by steventruong 15y ago
At the risk of going against the opinions of others on here, my personal belief is no one can really predict what will succeed and what will fail. Many will argue that you can tell what makes sense and what doesn't but that's not completely true in all cases. Some ideas that seem like failures at first have gone on to be great successes. Sure, in hindsight its easy for many to say its obvious but most are just full of shit and they don't even realize it. Even those involved in some ideas admit they weren't sure whether or not those ideas were crazy or not.
Often times, even some of the biggest ideas out there (and small ones too), sounds ludicrous at the start with hordes of doubters. There are also ideas that have failed, not because the concept or idea itself is bad but the execution was wrong or they took the wrong approach, bad timing, wrong features, etc... and were later found to be a success by someone else.
Some ideas may sound dumb (think pet rock) and yet end up making money or are their own success in their own right. You may think that is a one-off example but I've witness enough (and done my own fair share of ideas even I think is ridiculous) that saying you know the idea is doomed to fail is in my honest opinion a bit ignorant and arrogant.
As many have said before me, experience is both a blessing and a krytonite in that sometimes experience hinders you from trying what you think is to be a failure until someone else manages to make it a success. Experience is valuable but so is the willingness to try things even if it goes against your belief.
That said, whoever said you had to spend months developing and prototyping? You can seek the right crowd (potential users/customers) to iterate whether there is a market or not without a product and in many cases, without a prototype of any kind. If you guys always wait till you have a working MVP to determine whether or not an idea is worth building (although in some cases you absolutely need one albeit rare), then you're probably not doing things right already (especially if this is a common topic that comes up amongst yourselves).