3 ms·

This is totally meta but... this style of writing or rhetoric is prone to "semantic not concept" problems. Gambling, Trading or Investing don't have strict enou

This is totally meta but... this style of writing or rhetoric is prone to "semantic not concept" problems. Gambling, Trading or Investing don't have strict enough meanings to withstand a "socrates is a man" analysis... The author here is trying to make a point about EV. IE, a player is gambling, but the house is investing because positive or negative EV. I disagree. IMO, negative or positive EV is not what separates house from punter. What separates house from punter is volatility. The house's risk is spread over many bets, and so EV (positive or negative) is a good predictor of performance. Punters don't spread their risk. Roulette with positive EV is still gambling... it's just a "good bet." Obviously, the house tries to only offer bad bets. Skill games (both the author and gaming authorities agree) can still be gambling... though skill games can give players/gamblers a positive EV. I also, kind of, disagree with the overall sentiment. I think ordinary people wanting to get in on r/wallstreebets' action are safer adopting a gambler mentality. Don't bring more than you can afford to lose. Bank enough winnings to ensure that this condition stays true. Then, feel free to make long odds bets.

statstutor 6y ago
> The author here is trying to make a point about EV. This is only the first of their two points (summarised at the top and bottom). The second section "Poor Bet Sizing" covers what you are trying to say. They make the second point that even if you have positive EV, the size of your bet is relevant - and the Kelly Criterion can help you decide how much to stake. The larger your bankroll, the more volatility you can stomach [the smaller your bankroll, the more "good bets" are still a personal risk] - you are agreeing with their second point, that you should think like a professional gambler.
- dalbasal 6y ago
  Not quite. Appropriate bet sizing is related to volatility, but that doesn't make it the same. This is what I meant by imprecise definitions. Sure, two small bets are technically less volatile than one. I think this is a tricky road to walk. Whether its a diy version of modern portfolio theory, or a day trader's take on martingale system... EV doesn't matter if you're not trying getting market returns. If you very investment is a speculation, a risk. IDK what you mean specifically by "professional gambler," but most pro poker players are staked by others. That basically makes a martingale strategy viable... not unlike a "two and twenty" wall street trading firm. "Professional" in both gambling and finance are positions, not skillsets. A professional investor invests other people's money. Same with pro gamblers, generally

statstutor 6y ago

> The author here is trying to make a point about EV. This is only the first of their two points (summarised at the top and bottom). The second section "Poor Bet Sizing" covers what you are trying to say. They make the second point that even if you have positive EV, the size of your bet is relevant - and the Kelly Criterion can help you decide how much to stake. The larger your bankroll, the more volatility you can stomach [the smaller your bankroll, the more "good bets" are still a personal risk] - you are agreeing with their second point, that you should think like a professional gambler.

dalbasal 6y ago
Not quite. Appropriate bet sizing is related to volatility, but that doesn't make it the same. This is what I meant by imprecise definitions. Sure, two small bets are technically less volatile than one. I think this is a tricky road to walk. Whether its a diy version of modern portfolio theory, or a day trader's take on martingale system... EV doesn't matter if you're not trying getting market returns. If you very investment is a speculation, a risk. IDK what you mean specifically by "professional gambler," but most pro poker players are staked by others. That basically makes a martingale strategy viable... not unlike a "two and twenty" wall street trading firm. "Professional" in both gambling and finance are positions, not skillsets. A professional investor invests other people's money. Same with pro gamblers, generally