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In the US, 0.01% of the population dies in car crashes each year (I didn’t misplace a decimal, it’s actually a fairly rare event). If there’s a 1% annual chanc
by fshbbdssbbgdd 6y ago
In the US, 0.01% of the population dies in car crashes each year (I didn’t misplace a decimal, it’s actually a fairly rare event).
If there’s a 1% annual chance of a single event where 1% of the population dies all at once, that makes the risk dying of dying in such an event the same as dying in a car crash. If if either of those numbers are higher than 1%, it’s more likely than dying in a car crash. I’m not sure if the comment you responded to is correct about the numbers for this particular risk, just showing how rare extreme events can be important risks.
I think people tend of overrate rare events that only hurt a few people at a time (like shark attacks and lightning strikes) and underrate rare events that hurt a lot of people at once (like pandemics, extreme weather events, or other society-scale disasters).