5 ms·
GIC[0] is a pretty interesting risk factor but popular reporting on it is not great. The posted article has some interesting history on the Carrington event and
by intrepidhero 6y ago
GIC[0] is a pretty interesting risk factor but popular reporting on it is not great. The posted article has some interesting history on the Carrington event and good details on what CMEs are but falls down on when talking about the risk to the power system.
Example: "The power grids of most countries would be completely and effectively leveled. The top way to mitigate the effects of such a flare would be through increased grounding, so that the large currents that would otherwise flow through grid wires would instead flow directly into the Earth. Every time power companies attempt to do this, however, what winds up happening instead is that the conducting substance used for grounding (such as copper) is stolen for its material value."
Power grids would not be "completely leveled". And "grounding" is not the issue (although yeah, copper theft is a thing). Source[1] states that Hydro-Quebec tripped for over current on long transmission lines. This has nothing to do with inadequate grounding and the solution was to increase the over current settings because the system could handle the induced current. The system was restored in 9 hours. Another event[2] listed resulted in "disturbances" across a large geographic area: a voltage collapse and unusual power flow but not outages.
If the induced current was much higher the system would trip off to protect itself while the GIC lasted. This could take a while to recover from if it was a wide spread outage but we're not talking a civilization ending event like headlines suggest.
What power companies are most concerned about are damaged transformers. Replacement transformers (at transmission levels anyway) are very expensive and have months to years long lead time so if a few get damaged restoration could take a very long time. But we have literature[3][4] that tells us what transformer designs are susceptible to overheating due to GIC. TLDR: Most modern transformers will be fine.
What I'm more concerned about are satellites. I don't know how many satellites would be disabled and are at risk of collision. That sounds bad. What critical things rely on satellite infrastructure? GPS seems like a big one. Power systems use GPS timing, in some cases to enable differential current protection. But usually these systems will default to impedance protection on a loss of GPS signal and at any rate the industry is probably moving to terrestrial time sources because of the risk of GPS spoofing anyway.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetically_induced_current https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetically_induced_curren...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_August_1972 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_August_1972
[3] https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/6281595 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/6281595
[4] https://www.pes-psrc.org/kb/published/reports/GIC%20Presentation%20at%20PSRC%2005%2014%202014.pdf https://www.pes-psrc.org/kb/published/reports/GIC%20Presenta...
Source: I have worked on GIC monitoring systems at a major transmission company. But the opinions expressed are my own, etc, etc.
- olivermarks 6y agoI contemplated writing a book on the implications of a CME a few years ago, did some research but didn't have the time. An example of a critical thing that relies on satellite infrastructure are most gas pump payment processing and operations as I understood it. Regarding transformers there have been various US government level efforts to have back up Replacement transformers ready to go in storage in the last 20 years, the situation has not improved at all and like much single point of failure infrastructure an over reliance on China. I find it astounding the Pentagon can spend trillions on 'defence' but we can't scrape together the pocket lint to have back up offline infrastructure for the power grid ready to go with staffing and processes in place. Having said this there is a lot of alarmist information arguably primarily driven by page views floating around. The Sun Kings by Stuart Clark is a terrific read on the historical context of all this, highly recommend https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691141268/the-sun-kings https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691141268/th...
- mschuster91 6y ago> I find it astounding the Pentagon can spend trillions on 'defence' but we can't scrape together the pocket lint to have back up offline infrastructure for the power grid ready to go with staffing and processes in place. Astounding yes, but it doesn't surprise me. "Defence", no matter the country, and much of aeronautics/astronautics is mostly a jobs creation program. Just look how immensely widespread Airbus, Boeing and EADS are - their operation spans continents, mandated by the lawmakers who fund their programs. No wonder that SpaceX (and Tesla!) who are to a large-ish part privately funded can be so cheap and agile - they simply don't have to account for logistics of transporting all the stuff and produce as much as they can on-site, without nasty politicians shouting from the sideline they want a return (=jobs). Transformer production doesn't yield to creating many jobs or wide-spread jobs in contrast, and thus it isn't high up on priority lists of politicians. Also, keeping large amounts of spares isn't ideal because the technology itself can date - oils can go rancid, metal can rust, and especially isolator material can break down.
- TeMPOraL 6y ago