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Derailing: Leaving aside that these drug laws are draconian, strict punishment does appear to have an impact on crime when observing 1st world countries. Japane

Derailing: Leaving aside that these drug laws are draconian, strict punishment does appear to have an impact on crime when observing 1st world countries. Japanese poverty rate for example is reportedly 16% and the last official rate in the U.S. was 10.5%, but has one of the lowest murder rates in the world. People like to chalk this up to mere "culture", which is absurd. Culture changes, and is itself informed by various factors which can include the law. The rehabilitation proponents skeptical of punishment tend to focus on recidivism only. The only question to ask is whether the severity of punishment is warranted.

watwut 6y ago
America has pretty strict punishments. It locks up quite a lot of people and for long. Another factor in murders is gun control - America has much bigger prevalence of guns. And most murders are in the moment escalation - impulsive acts, arguments that went out of hand and so on. When gun is present, people are more likely to pick them up and kill someone. If they are not present, the same thing does not end in death.
- slothtrop 6y ago
  And yet, not as strict. It's a revolving door with high recidivism. Violent crime tends to scale more with poverty. The relationship with firearm laws is weak. See: the U.K.
  - tt433 6y ago
    This idea that we need to be stricter is what led to the crime bills now under bipartisan attack
  - watwut 6y ago
    USA is more strict. Also, Japan lock up much much less people then America. Yet also, Americans are obsessed with idea of punishment. Their first idea of what to do with basically any issue is to punish more.
WhompingWindows 6y ago
Your premise that strict punishment leads to impacts on crime in the 1st world is not supported by just picking Japan and the USA as your only evidence. Issue one, do criminals actually know the penalties for their crimes? Deterrence relies upon criminals knowing facts of the law, when evidence suggests crime is impulsive and done by those who lack education and opportunity. The economy is hurt and crimes are on the rise in the US; I'm surmising criminals are not vastly less aware of laws than a year ago. Issue two, even if criminals knew the penalties, deterrence would rely upon them to weigh and measure the consequences and not commit crimes. How does deterrence work when criminals believe themselves to be lucky and not susceptible to being caught? How does deterrence work when desperation, poverty, and a culture of crime leads young men to view punishment with a shrug or disdain? Issue three, the biggest in my view, We've seen rises in violent crime in the US in the past year -- has deterrence gone down? Have laws changed towards less severe punishment? Or, have socioeconomic conditions changed? Issue four, Japan is a highly insular island nation with an ancient culture and quite a unique cultural attitude. They have extremely low littering and crime, their populace is extremely "tight" in its conformation to laws and regulations such as masking, quaranting, etc. So I wouldn't say they are a good example of an average nation.
- slothtrop 6y ago
  > Your premise that strict punishment leads to impacts on crime in the 1st world is not supported by just picking Japan and the USA as your only evidence. They were just the only example, because I can't be arsed to detail all of East Asia that happens to have a comparable inequality and strong enough middle class. See also Singapore, Taiwan, China, South Korea. Hell, see more than that. Lower crime rate, generally stricter punishment than found in the U.S. > Deterrence relies upon criminals knowing facts of the law, It doesn't. This gets transmuted through culture, and would-be assailants have an overall sense of what punishment would entail without knowing specifics. Anyone in the first world regardless of class would expect 1st degree murder to lead to ample time served for example. > deterrence would rely upon them to weigh and measure the consequences and not commit crimes. To an extent. It's not entirely conscious. > How does deterrence work when criminals believe themselves to be lucky and not susceptible to being caught? Cost-benefit analysis. They gamble. > How does deterrence work when desperation, poverty, and a culture of crime leads young men to view punishment with a shrug or disdain? It's viewed with a shrug when incentives to commit crimes are comparatively strong. Not so in the aforementioned countries. > Issue three, the biggest in my view Weird thing to say. It's not relevant. > We've seen rises in violent crime in the US in the past year -- has deterrence gone down? Nope. Unrest has gone up. > Issue four, Japan is a highly insular island nation with an ancient culture and quite a unique cultural attitude. Uhuh, and would this be the same bullshit argument to hand-wave away the circumstances of similar neighboring counties? Culture is informed, and culture is not immutable. Laws change culture.
volkl48 6y ago
While I do believe the Japanese murder rate is low, the Japanese criminal justice system is also a complete farce and I would not consider their statistics reliable. Unsolved cases are unacceptable and so suspicious deaths without an obvious suspect are classified as a suicide or natural death with little investigation and no autopsy. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/02/03/national/media-national/japans-suicide-statistics-dont-tell-the-real-story/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/02/03/national/media-... https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-nov-09-fg-autopsy9-story.html https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-nov-09-fg-autop... -------------- Not that when they believe a crime has occurred is much better. If the police think you have committed a crime, you are guilty, whether you are or not. If you don't agree that you're guilty, they can just torture you with sleep deprivation and non-stop interrogation for a month without access to a lawyer. If you cave to the torture at any point and sign a confession (or if someone just...forges your confession) that confession will be considered binding with little chance of overturning it. Good luck withstanding that. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2015/12/05/forced-to-confess https://www.economist.com/leaders/2015/12/05/forced-to-confe... https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/10/call-eliminate-japans-hostage-justice-system-japanese-legal-professionals https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/10/call-eliminate-japans-ho... https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2016/10/10/japan-forced-confessions-and-wrong-convictions https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2016/10/10/japan-forced-c...
- slothtrop 6y ago
  It's a leap to assume that crime and incarceration rate stats are a fabrication by virtue that the solve-rate of crimes is abnormally high. They have nothing to do with one another.
  - volkl48 6y ago
    I disagree. They're the product of the same pressure. Crimes need to be solved and unsolved crimes or acquittals are to be avoided at all costs. If that is your reality: They can be solved by aggressive prosecution of those under suspicion - torturing confessions out of people if they are unwilling to confess (maybe because they're innocent). They can also be solved by selective prosecution - don't look too hard at cases that seem like they'll be difficult, call them a suicide or natural death and close the book. No crime, no problem to make you look bad if you can't solve it. ------ I am not alleging that Japan is actually a place with high crime rates. Just that the deep flaws in their system provide a strong incentive to distort their crime rates. Especially for homicide, being both high profile and being a crime where the victim can't complain about how their case is handled. You're citing their homicide rates as an example of "strict punishment does appear to have an impact on crime", and I'm suggesting Japan's homicide statistics aren't a great example. -------- On a related note (and one I've read far less on), it seems the vast majority of criminal offenders basically get a suspended sentence, at least for their first offense. So, I'm not sure that you can really say that Japan's criminal justice system is an example of "strict punishment" either.
jessaustin 6y ago
Is there some reason you're under the impression that Japanese criminal punishments are more harsh than USA criminal punishments? Look at the incarceration rates and you'll find that's completely backwards.
- slothtrop 6y ago
  Incarceration rate is not a reflection of it being more strict. Time served, and death penalty, is.

watwut 6y ago

America has pretty strict punishments. It locks up quite a lot of people and for long. Another factor in murders is gun control - America has much bigger prevalence of guns. And most murders are in the moment escalation - impulsive acts, arguments that went out of hand and so on. When gun is present, people are more likely to pick them up and kill someone. If they are not present, the same thing does not end in death.

slothtrop 6y ago
And yet, not as strict. It's a revolving door with high recidivism. Violent crime tends to scale more with poverty. The relationship with firearm laws is weak. See: the U.K.
- tt433 6y ago
  This idea that we need to be stricter is what led to the crime bills now under bipartisan attack
- watwut 6y ago
  USA is more strict. Also, Japan lock up much much less people then America. Yet also, Americans are obsessed with idea of punishment. Their first idea of what to do with basically any issue is to punish more.

WhompingWindows 6y ago

Your premise that strict punishment leads to impacts on crime in the 1st world is not supported by just picking Japan and the USA as your only evidence. Issue one, do criminals actually know the penalties for their crimes? Deterrence relies upon criminals knowing facts of the law, when evidence suggests crime is impulsive and done by those who lack education and opportunity. The economy is hurt and crimes are on the rise in the US; I'm surmising criminals are not vastly less aware of laws than a year ago. Issue two, even if criminals knew the penalties, deterrence would rely upon them to weigh and measure the consequences and not commit crimes. How does deterrence work when criminals believe themselves to be lucky and not susceptible to being caught? How does deterrence work when desperation, poverty, and a culture of crime leads young men to view punishment with a shrug or disdain? Issue three, the biggest in my view, We've seen rises in violent crime in the US in the past year -- has deterrence gone down? Have laws changed towards less severe punishment? Or, have socioeconomic conditions changed? Issue four, Japan is a highly insular island nation with an ancient culture and quite a unique cultural attitude. They have extremely low littering and crime, their populace is extremely "tight" in its conformation to laws and regulations such as masking, quaranting, etc. So I wouldn't say they are a good example of an average nation.

slothtrop 6y ago
> Your premise that strict punishment leads to impacts on crime in the 1st world is not supported by just picking Japan and the USA as your only evidence. They were just the only example, because I can't be arsed to detail all of East Asia that happens to have a comparable inequality and strong enough middle class. See also Singapore, Taiwan, China, South Korea. Hell, see more than that. Lower crime rate, generally stricter punishment than found in the U.S. > Deterrence relies upon criminals knowing facts of the law, It doesn't. This gets transmuted through culture, and would-be assailants have an overall sense of what punishment would entail without knowing specifics. Anyone in the first world regardless of class would expect 1st degree murder to lead to ample time served for example. > deterrence would rely upon them to weigh and measure the consequences and not commit crimes. To an extent. It's not entirely conscious. > How does deterrence work when criminals believe themselves to be lucky and not susceptible to being caught? Cost-benefit analysis. They gamble. > How does deterrence work when desperation, poverty, and a culture of crime leads young men to view punishment with a shrug or disdain? It's viewed with a shrug when incentives to commit crimes are comparatively strong. Not so in the aforementioned countries. > Issue three, the biggest in my view Weird thing to say. It's not relevant. > We've seen rises in violent crime in the US in the past year -- has deterrence gone down? Nope. Unrest has gone up. > Issue four, Japan is a highly insular island nation with an ancient culture and quite a unique cultural attitude. Uhuh, and would this be the same bullshit argument to hand-wave away the circumstances of similar neighboring counties? Culture is informed, and culture is not immutable. Laws change culture.

volkl48 6y ago

While I do believe the Japanese murder rate is low, the Japanese criminal justice system is also a complete farce and I would not consider their statistics reliable. Unsolved cases are unacceptable and so suspicious deaths without an obvious suspect are classified as a suicide or natural death with little investigation and no autopsy. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/02/03/national/media-national/japans-suicide-statistics-dont-tell-the-real-story/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/02/03/national/media-... https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-nov-09-fg-autopsy9-story.html https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-nov-09-fg-autop... -------------- Not that when they believe a crime has occurred is much better. If the police think you have committed a crime, you are guilty, whether you are or not. If you don't agree that you're guilty, they can just torture you with sleep deprivation and non-stop interrogation for a month without access to a lawyer. If you cave to the torture at any point and sign a confession (or if someone just...forges your confession) that confession will be considered binding with little chance of overturning it. Good luck withstanding that. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2015/12/05/forced-to-confess https://www.economist.com/leaders/2015/12/05/forced-to-confe... https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/10/call-eliminate-japans-hostage-justice-system-japanese-legal-professionals https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/10/call-eliminate-japans-ho... https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2016/10/10/japan-forced-confessions-and-wrong-convictions https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2016/10/10/japan-forced-c...

slothtrop 6y ago
It's a leap to assume that crime and incarceration rate stats are a fabrication by virtue that the solve-rate of crimes is abnormally high. They have nothing to do with one another.
- volkl48 6y ago
  I disagree. They're the product of the same pressure. Crimes need to be solved and unsolved crimes or acquittals are to be avoided at all costs. If that is your reality: They can be solved by aggressive prosecution of those under suspicion - torturing confessions out of people if they are unwilling to confess (maybe because they're innocent). They can also be solved by selective prosecution - don't look too hard at cases that seem like they'll be difficult, call them a suicide or natural death and close the book. No crime, no problem to make you look bad if you can't solve it. ------ I am not alleging that Japan is actually a place with high crime rates. Just that the deep flaws in their system provide a strong incentive to distort their crime rates. Especially for homicide, being both high profile and being a crime where the victim can't complain about how their case is handled. You're citing their homicide rates as an example of "strict punishment does appear to have an impact on crime", and I'm suggesting Japan's homicide statistics aren't a great example. -------- On a related note (and one I've read far less on), it seems the vast majority of criminal offenders basically get a suspended sentence, at least for their first offense. So, I'm not sure that you can really say that Japan's criminal justice system is an example of "strict punishment" either.

jessaustin 6y ago

Is there some reason you're under the impression that Japanese criminal punishments are more harsh than USA criminal punishments? Look at the incarceration rates and you'll find that's completely backwards.

slothtrop 6y ago
Incarceration rate is not a reflection of it being more strict. Time served, and death penalty, is.