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You're missing that they modeled all of those scenarios out, "do nothing" was just one of their models. And even their best case scenarios overshot the mark --
by nostromo 6y ago
You're missing that they modeled all of those scenarios out, "do nothing" was just one of their models.
And even their best case scenarios overshot the mark -- and by a lot.
This isn't to criticize modeling -- it's only to point out how hard it is to get right.
- miscorrection 6y agoYou claimed: > The models tended to overshoot the number of deaths by huge amounts. For example, the Imperial College of London estimated 40m deaths in 2020 instead of the 2m that occurred. The very article you cited pointed out that the 40m figure was based on a "left unchecked" scenario. It was not an attempt to predict the actual number of deaths that would occur. Claiming that this is indicative of overshooting because the actual number of deaths is 2m is completely wrong.