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By the way, I think in the problem Linda is supposed to be a bank teller, not a banker. It doesn't actually change the correct answer (a conjunction is always
by wenc 6y ago
By the way, I think in the problem Linda is supposed to be a bank teller, not a banker.
It doesn't actually change the correct answer (a conjunction is always less probable: P(a) > P(a) & P(b), and the same with P(b)), but it does affect the framing of the question.
Is it likely Linda is active in the feminist movement? Yes.
Is it likely Linda is a banker? No, given the priors in the first sentence, she would likely not choose a capitalist profession contrary to her values.
Is it likely Linda is a bank teller? In the absence of more information, 50/50. It's just a job.
Linda ostensibly being a bank teller works better.
- kashyapc 6y agoHi, you're right; sorry for being sloppy. I simplified the term bank teller to banker when I wanted to pose that problem to some non-native English speakers. I did that reduce some "distraction" — the term 'teller' (or bank teller) is uncommon in most regions other than North America. But when posting it here on HN, I forgot to put back the original phrasing.