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So 50% of your points are that Musk was wrong about self-driving. Fair enough, but why stop copy-pasting there? As far as I remember, Tesla built a public bat

So 50% of your points are that Musk was wrong about self-driving. Fair enough, but why stop copy-pasting there? As far as I remember, Tesla built a public battery swap station in a former car wash at Harris Ranch and real customers did use it. I also recall that the swapping hardware was demonstrated on video to do two pack swaps in the same time it took to re-fill a gas Audi. So I'm not sure what your point is with that. The mini-sub was actually built, but not used. Not sure if I'd count that as "never came true". As for the Roadster and Semi delays... the Semi is on the road (there are at least two of them), and it's not like Tesla is the only car manufacturer to miss shipping targets. Are the CEOs of those companies "liars" too?

pseudosavant 6y ago
You say half is about self driving, like that is only one lie. He makes this repeated lie, updated for the year, multiple times a year every year since 2016. He claimed the battery swap was going to be at Super Charger locations. Not that they tested it at an old car wash. A couple of prototype Semis on the road in secret in 2021 is a far cry from commercial delivery in 2019. And yes, no other car company CEO could consistently overpromise and underdeliver like he does and keep their job. Most automaker stocks don't have the religious fervor of Tesla. Most automakers are quite careful about the dates they say, and the certainty the communicate around it. Nobody wants to get sued for making misleading statements to investors. Look at what is happening to Nikola for instance. They had one misleading video and it might put the company under. It already killed off their Badger pickup truck. On SpaceX, he has been more careful about what he says because he does care about ruffling feathers at the NASA and Space Force. He doesn't want to bite the hand that feeds him. Also, that industry is filled with grifting rife with liars (see ULA and SLS) who make claims they could never deliver on. By definition, someone who makes repeatedly makes factual claims that are false that are factually disprovable is a liar. No matter the industry.
- wahern 6y ago
  > no other car company CEO could consistently overpromise and underdeliver like he does and keep their job. Musk doesn't overpromise for investors or the public. His M.O. is to overpromise as motivation to drive productivity. Every day he manages to convince his workforce that they're at the cusp of crossing the finish line of w'ever insane goal he has set, and so they keep pushing hard that day (or they quit). At this point it should be obvious: Musk never hits his timelines, and yet he usually still delivers faster than any other CEO or company could ever dream of delivering. His M.O. works because of his personality and his personal investment in operations. Few managers could ever hope to replicate that, and those who do end up failing horribly, or were merely trying to paper over some other deficiencies. But judging Musk by applying the same standards one would apply to Fortune 500 companies, expecting him to adhere to normative business culture (formal and informal), seems a little obtuse given the past 10+ years of history making abundantly clear exactly how and why he operates. 15+ years ago, sure, it was easy to write Musk off as a conman. But he's delivered in ways that nobody ever thought possible. At this point the only credible interpretation (not simply charitable one) is that he's perfectly sincere and earnest--that his methodology, including his "stories", serve a legitimate and crucial function. Musk is one of those few characters that come along every generation or so, breaks all the rules, and succeeds where pretty much everyone else would have failed. It's not always pretty, but it works. It is what it is.
- labcomputer 6y ago
  > He claimed the battery swap was going to be at Super Charger locations. Not that they tested it at an old car wash. Well, Harris Ranch is a Super Charger location, so... I guess that wasn't a lie? And, again, real customers did use it on real road trips (you can read user experiences on TMC). Turns out people would rather take a discount for charging instead of swapping, so the swapping model wasn't financially viable. Sometimes plans change. Is almost every startup founder a liar because they pivoted after testing market fit? > Most automakers are quite careful about the dates they say, and the certainty the communicate around it. Oh, come. on. I'm going to pick on VWAG for a minute: * The e-Tron was months late due to software issues. * The Taycan has been out for almost a year and a half, yet features promised to be available at launch are still unavailable. OTA does not exist. Owners report that paid software features randomly disappear then come back a few days later. 12V battery problems bricking the car are rife. * Porsche repeatedly and loudly claimed the Taycan was a track-capable car, and wouldn't overheat, unlike those silly children over at Tesla. Owner reports on taycanforum.com indicate otherwise. * VW said the ID.3 would be available in 2020Q2, but didn't start shipping until 2020Q4. * They sold and registered ID.3s to dealerships to inflate their sales numbers for December, despite claiming many months ago that they were sold out for a year. They've sold almost none in January. That's called channel stuffing, and regulators don't like it. > And yes, no other car company CEO could consistently overpromise and underdeliver like he does and keep their job. Really? I don't see anyone calling for Herbert Diess's head. Yet, every new EV from VWAG has been late. By your standards it sounds like he repeatedly lied about timelines. And it sure looks like VWAG lied to investors and regulators about the number of cars sold to actual customers in 2020. > A couple of prototype Semis on the road in secret in 2021 is a far cry from commercial delivery in 2019. You originally claimed that "Semis on the road by 2019" was an example of a Musk lie. Here is an article, with pictures, from March 2018 showing a Tesla Semi charging at a public supercharger. https://electrek.co/2018/03/08/tesla-semi-trucks-spotted-supercharger-first-cargo-trip/ https://electrek.co/2018/03/08/tesla-semi-trucks-spotted-sup... > By definition, someone who makes repeatedly makes factual claims that are false that are factually disprovable is a liar. No matter the industry. Pot, meet kettle.

pseudosavant 6y ago

You say half is about self driving, like that is only one lie. He makes this repeated lie, updated for the year, multiple times a year every year since 2016. He claimed the battery swap was going to be at Super Charger locations. Not that they tested it at an old car wash. A couple of prototype Semis on the road in secret in 2021 is a far cry from commercial delivery in 2019. And yes, no other car company CEO could consistently overpromise and underdeliver like he does and keep their job. Most automaker stocks don't have the religious fervor of Tesla. Most automakers are quite careful about the dates they say, and the certainty the communicate around it. Nobody wants to get sued for making misleading statements to investors. Look at what is happening to Nikola for instance. They had one misleading video and it might put the company under. It already killed off their Badger pickup truck. On SpaceX, he has been more careful about what he says because he does care about ruffling feathers at the NASA and Space Force. He doesn't want to bite the hand that feeds him. Also, that industry is filled with grifting rife with liars (see ULA and SLS) who make claims they could never deliver on. By definition, someone who makes repeatedly makes factual claims that are false that are factually disprovable is a liar. No matter the industry.

wahern 6y ago
> no other car company CEO could consistently overpromise and underdeliver like he does and keep their job. Musk doesn't overpromise for investors or the public. His M.O. is to overpromise as motivation to drive productivity. Every day he manages to convince his workforce that they're at the cusp of crossing the finish line of w'ever insane goal he has set, and so they keep pushing hard that day (or they quit). At this point it should be obvious: Musk never hits his timelines, and yet he usually still delivers faster than any other CEO or company could ever dream of delivering. His M.O. works because of his personality and his personal investment in operations. Few managers could ever hope to replicate that, and those who do end up failing horribly, or were merely trying to paper over some other deficiencies. But judging Musk by applying the same standards one would apply to Fortune 500 companies, expecting him to adhere to normative business culture (formal and informal), seems a little obtuse given the past 10+ years of history making abundantly clear exactly how and why he operates. 15+ years ago, sure, it was easy to write Musk off as a conman. But he's delivered in ways that nobody ever thought possible. At this point the only credible interpretation (not simply charitable one) is that he's perfectly sincere and earnest--that his methodology, including his "stories", serve a legitimate and crucial function. Musk is one of those few characters that come along every generation or so, breaks all the rules, and succeeds where pretty much everyone else would have failed. It's not always pretty, but it works. It is what it is.
labcomputer 6y ago
> He claimed the battery swap was going to be at Super Charger locations. Not that they tested it at an old car wash. Well, Harris Ranch is a Super Charger location, so... I guess that wasn't a lie? And, again, real customers did use it on real road trips (you can read user experiences on TMC). Turns out people would rather take a discount for charging instead of swapping, so the swapping model wasn't financially viable. Sometimes plans change. Is almost every startup founder a liar because they pivoted after testing market fit? > Most automakers are quite careful about the dates they say, and the certainty the communicate around it. Oh, come. on. I'm going to pick on VWAG for a minute: * The e-Tron was months late due to software issues. * The Taycan has been out for almost a year and a half, yet features promised to be available at launch are still unavailable. OTA does not exist. Owners report that paid software features randomly disappear then come back a few days later. 12V battery problems bricking the car are rife. * Porsche repeatedly and loudly claimed the Taycan was a track-capable car, and wouldn't overheat, unlike those silly children over at Tesla. Owner reports on taycanforum.com indicate otherwise. * VW said the ID.3 would be available in 2020Q2, but didn't start shipping until 2020Q4. * They sold and registered ID.3s to dealerships to inflate their sales numbers for December, despite claiming many months ago that they were sold out for a year. They've sold almost none in January. That's called channel stuffing, and regulators don't like it. > And yes, no other car company CEO could consistently overpromise and underdeliver like he does and keep their job. Really? I don't see anyone calling for Herbert Diess's head. Yet, every new EV from VWAG has been late. By your standards it sounds like he repeatedly lied about timelines. And it sure looks like VWAG lied to investors and regulators about the number of cars sold to actual customers in 2020. > A couple of prototype Semis on the road in secret in 2021 is a far cry from commercial delivery in 2019. You originally claimed that "Semis on the road by 2019" was an example of a Musk lie. Here is an article, with pictures, from March 2018 showing a Tesla Semi charging at a public supercharger. https://electrek.co/2018/03/08/tesla-semi-trucks-spotted-supercharger-first-cargo-trip/ https://electrek.co/2018/03/08/tesla-semi-trucks-spotted-sup... > By definition, someone who makes repeatedly makes factual claims that are false that are factually disprovable is a liar. No matter the industry. Pot, meet kettle.