2 ms·
Well there's the evidence that any firm short at $20 would have been dead if they didn't get out before $200. I'm only aware of one firm that went bankrupt, and
by fractionalhare 6y ago
Well there's the evidence that any firm short at $20 would have been dead if they didn't get out before $200. I'm only aware of one firm that went bankrupt, and it wasn't Melvin or another major fund.
Put yourself in the firm's position and think about this from a game theoretic perspective...what is the upside in lying? The thinking is that you might convince people to lay off the voracious buying if you make it seem like the short squeeze isn't possible because you're out? That seems like a stretch and would require navigating lots of wild assumptions about why this almost unprecedented price action is happening.
On the other hand, there is tons of downside. If the plan doesn't work and the price continues its meteoric rise, you're bankrupt. If you're caught lying, you're additionally hit with securities fraud. Then the veil is pierced and the partners are at risk of losing their money. On top of this if your investors are savvy they'll sue you for breaking fiduciary duty because you didn't close out a position that makes selling naked SPY calls look safe. This also puts the partners' private capital at risk.
It would be cartoonishly dumb to lie about closing the position instead of actually doing it.
- thebean11 6y agoWhat's your math on that, considering Melvin's multi billion dollar bailout?
- fractionalhare 6y agoTheir AUM was around $13B at the beginning of the year. They were short at $20. As was reported, they lost about 53% of that, call it $6B, as GME rose from $20 to $100, which is when they said they closed out. Their AUM wouldn't be able to survive $100 - $200 given their losses going from $20 - $100.