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> sub-million dollar homes were quickly getting more expensive, and multi-million dollar mansions were relatively static It's because the price of the average

> sub-million dollar homes were quickly getting more expensive, and multi-million dollar mansions were relatively static It's because the price of the average house is due to the cost of urban/suburban land - which is scarce and therefore tracks affordability (i.e. rises steeply with median incomes, population growth and especially falling mortgage rates). Meanwhile the price of multi-million dream homes are (a) often dominated by building costs which rise slower than incomes (b) don't rise due to falling mortgage rates as the NFL player/movie star/exiting startup founder pays in cash rather than over a 30yr mortgage term. > and I've found that usually if something doesn't make sense to me - it is because it is misrepresented That is a statement full of hubris. You might find that if something doesn't make sense, you might just not be in possession of all the relevant information. (In this case, the trajectory of mortgage rates and their effect on affordability of homes, demographics and population growth in a metro area, income growth and wealth distribution.)

tal8d 6y ago
> It's because the price of the average house is due to the cost of urban/suburban land... That maybe true, but it would be unrelated to my observations. > ...rises steeply with median incomes... Whoops! For that to be true there would have to be a non-linear relation that would itself be far more interesting than the housing prices issue. > ...often dominated by building costs which rise slower than incomes... Not a lot of new mansion construction going on. Oh, and those construction costs are pretty ridiculous right now due to a jump in lumber and appliance costs - income would have had to nearly double to match construction's rate of increase. I collected bids a few months ago for a grading and paving, jobs dominated by labor costs. The quotes were laughably overpriced. > ...as the NFL player/movie star/exiting startup founder pays in cash... lol, your conception of today's millionaire is way off - it is a distinction that has never been more easily attained. > That is a statement full of hubris. No, that is - and presumptuous :) Also, that final sentence agrees with the mortgage issue I mentioned, gets the direction of migration wrong, and finally overlooks the steadily growing income disparity - which is somehow resulting in mansions doing poorly on the real estate market. So you did a pretty good job of unintentionally proving my point with regard to the situation being misrepresented.

tal8d 6y ago

> It's because the price of the average house is due to the cost of urban/suburban land... That maybe true, but it would be unrelated to my observations. > ...rises steeply with median incomes... Whoops! For that to be true there would have to be a non-linear relation that would itself be far more interesting than the housing prices issue. > ...often dominated by building costs which rise slower than incomes... Not a lot of new mansion construction going on. Oh, and those construction costs are pretty ridiculous right now due to a jump in lumber and appliance costs - income would have had to nearly double to match construction's rate of increase. I collected bids a few months ago for a grading and paving, jobs dominated by labor costs. The quotes were laughably overpriced. > ...as the NFL player/movie star/exiting startup founder pays in cash... lol, your conception of today's millionaire is way off - it is a distinction that has never been more easily attained. > That is a statement full of hubris. No, that is - and presumptuous :) Also, that final sentence agrees with the mortgage issue I mentioned, gets the direction of migration wrong, and finally overlooks the steadily growing income disparity - which is somehow resulting in mansions doing poorly on the real estate market. So you did a pretty good job of unintentionally proving my point with regard to the situation being misrepresented.