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"Paying attention", in all senses of the phrase, has been one of "killer features" of well-being, dating back to ancient Greeks. That said, the "conjunction fa

"Paying attention", in all senses of the phrase, has been one of "killer features" of well-being, dating back to ancient Greeks. That said, the "conjunction fallacy" mentioned in the article, it seems to be one of the biases that casts quite a powerful spell. I first came across it six years ago, and got it wrong. I recently tried the famous "Linda Problem" from Kahneman & Tversky on a few friends — some of them are working scientists — and almost all of them went with the incorrect answer, and they're in good company for that. The Linda Problem being: [/quote] Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Now, which alternative is more probable? (a) Linda is a banker. (b) Linda is a banker and is active in the feminist movement. [/quote] This is one of the neatest examples that demonstrate how much we run on autopilot.

wenc 6y ago
By the way, I think in the problem Linda is supposed to be a bank teller, not a banker. It doesn't actually change the correct answer (a conjunction is always less probable: P(a) > P(a) & P(b), and the same with P(b)), but it does affect the framing of the question. Is it likely Linda is active in the feminist movement? Yes. Is it likely Linda is a banker? No, given the priors in the first sentence, she would likely not choose a capitalist profession contrary to her values. Is it likely Linda is a bank teller? In the absence of more information, 50/50. It's just a job. Linda ostensibly being a bank teller works better.
- kashyapc 6y ago
  Hi, you're right; sorry for being sloppy. I simplified the term bank teller to banker when I wanted to pose that problem to some non-native English speakers. I did that reduce some "distraction" — the term 'teller' (or bank teller) is uncommon in most regions other than North America. But when posting it here on HN, I forgot to put back the original phrasing.

wenc 6y ago

By the way, I think in the problem Linda is supposed to be a bank teller, not a banker. It doesn't actually change the correct answer (a conjunction is always less probable: P(a) > P(a) & P(b), and the same with P(b)), but it does affect the framing of the question. Is it likely Linda is active in the feminist movement? Yes. Is it likely Linda is a banker? No, given the priors in the first sentence, she would likely not choose a capitalist profession contrary to her values. Is it likely Linda is a bank teller? In the absence of more information, 50/50. It's just a job. Linda ostensibly being a bank teller works better.

kashyapc 6y ago
Hi, you're right; sorry for being sloppy. I simplified the term bank teller to banker when I wanted to pose that problem to some non-native English speakers. I did that reduce some "distraction" — the term 'teller' (or bank teller) is uncommon in most regions other than North America. But when posting it here on HN, I forgot to put back the original phrasing.