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So from $62890 to $92610 in 18 years. That is only a 4% increase per year. I am surprised it is so little. I recently looked up some old receipts I paid in re

So from $62890 to $92610 in 18 years. That is only a 4% increase per year. I am surprised it is so little. I recently looked up some old receipts I paid in restaurants and cafes from 11 years ago. And then looked up the same items in the same cafes and restaurants now. The prices roughly doubled. So these increased by about 6% per year. If developer salaries increased slower than inflation, why is it still so hard to find good freelance developers? Could the explanation be that the market has been flooded with people who call themselfes developers but hardly grasp what is going on under the hood? And just glue external code together until it kinda works?

ido 6y ago
Restaurant prices are not the only mark for inflation. Has inflation in the past 18 years been more than 4% per year on average?
- thaumasiotes 6y ago
  It doesn't look impressive against the CPI. According to the BLS calculator, $62,890 in 2003 is worth $90,538.76 in 2021. So after adjusting for inflation, salaries have risen by all of 2%?
  - PenguinCoder 6y ago
    That's pretty depressing.
- ArtTimeInvestor 6y ago
  Depends on what you look at. Gold increased about 9% per year. The Nasdaq increased about 11% per year.
  - ploika 6y ago
    Neither of those represent inflation in consumer prices particularly well. The price of a new washing machine (amortised maybe, I don't know), a litre of milk, a pair of jeans, a monthly phone/broadband bill or a tank of petrol would be more useful in tracking inflation. Gold, copper, pork bellies, shipping, storage costs etc would be tracked in something like the Purchasing Managers Index. Share prices are pretty much irrelevant since buying shares isn't really consumption.
    - lotsofpulp 6y ago
      > The price of a new washing machine (amortised maybe, I don't know), a litre of milk, a pair of jeans, a monthly phone/broadband bill or a tank of petrol would be more useful in tracking inflation. That’s pocket change compared to the change in price for real estate, healthcare, education, childcare, taxes, and savings (assets for retirement and emergencies). At least for where I want to live. If I made a budget 15 years ago of my purchases in the next 15 years, the total price for the total of those purchases increased at far more than US government CPI figures. I get more bang for buck for my TV, but that’s offset by the extra few hundred thousand dollars for land, healthcare, etc.
      - ploika 6y ago
        Of course. Depending on where you live, most of what you mentioned is probably included in the CPI calculation. Rent, health insurance, education and childcare are all included in Ireland's CPI in some form, for example. I was trying to differentiate between increases in consumer prices (like the cost of a watch or running a car) and increases in cost/value of other stuff (like gold bullion or Tesla shares or whatever).
  - TheCoelacanth 6y ago
    When I start eating gold and living in a Nasdaq, then that might matter as a measure of inflation.
enriquto 6y ago
> hardly grasp what is going on under the hood? And just glue external code together until it kinda works? Wait, isn't this what all of us do? Do some folks really understand things?
- ben_w 6y ago
  I try to, but I guess it depends what you mean by “really understand” — I’m happy so long as I know about the product logic, but @pjc50 has said of themselves something along the lines of “full stack at every level from the transistor to the UI” or similar (I can’t find a link to the actual comment, they post too much for that).
  - jlokier 6y ago
    Possibly this one. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14191777 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14191777
    - ben_w 6y ago
      That certainly looks like the one I was thinking of, thank you.
- gambiting 6y ago
  I mean, I won't pretend I understand everything I do, but working in video games there's frequently no "external code" you can draw from, not even a Stack Overflow where you can ask questions. Over a year ago we got few prototype PS5 devkits dropped on our desks with some basic documentation available and were told to make it work - that's not something where you can ask for any help anywhere, because it's all NDA'ed and Sony engineers are extremely busy, so you just....have to figure stuff out by yourself.
- sanxiyn 6y ago
  Yes, I do.
ben_w 6y ago
This inflation calculator says the USA has had cumulative inflation of only 20%, not 100%, in the last 11 years; of 42% in the last 18 years; and of 48% in the last 20 years: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ I suspect your restaurant and café receipts are not representative of general price changes.
- ArtTimeInvestor 6y ago
  I suspect that website is not representative of general price changes. Maybe it looks at things that got easier to produce so they got cheaper via efficiency. They just don't sell cheaper because of inflation.
  - Mauricebranagh 6y ago
    That's the elephant in the room with inflation measures (CPI CPIH RPI) the selection of the basket of goods can have a massive effect on the actual recorded rate - which may not be what the average person on the ground experiences. Governments have incentives to use this to flatter the results or change inflation measures eg the UK and its switch to CPI from RPI for a lot of things.
    - zelos 6y ago
      Presumably there's a big difference in the level of inflation experienced based on income level as well: someone just scraping by is going to be much more exposed to food and rent inflation than a developer on $100k.
      - foolmeonce 6y ago
        True, but the chosen measure is going to be the lowest inflation imaginable since it relates strongly the global price of goods instead of services cost. Poor people actually can't escape service costs and pay for a lot more (seemingly) mandatory service costs that go away when you have enough money to stay away from them. I.e. the costs of not having a fridge at all vs being able to bulk shop at a warehouse are all massively higher.
Loic 6y ago
For another reference point, the "cost of life index"[0] in Germany went from 79,9 (in 2000) to 105,8 (in 2020), a 32% increase. DESTATIS provide all the details of the calculations of this index and also how it changes over the years to adapt to the real cost of life (like everybody having a smartphone now but not in 1991). [0]: https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online?operation=previous&levelindex=1&step=1&titel=Ergebnis&levelid=1614268888541&acceptscookies=false https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online?operation=pre...

ido 6y ago

Restaurant prices are not the only mark for inflation. Has inflation in the past 18 years been more than 4% per year on average?

thaumasiotes 6y ago
It doesn't look impressive against the CPI. According to the BLS calculator, $62,890 in 2003 is worth $90,538.76 in 2021. So after adjusting for inflation, salaries have risen by all of 2%?
- PenguinCoder 6y ago
  That's pretty depressing.
ArtTimeInvestor 6y ago
Depends on what you look at. Gold increased about 9% per year. The Nasdaq increased about 11% per year.
- ploika 6y ago
  Neither of those represent inflation in consumer prices particularly well. The price of a new washing machine (amortised maybe, I don't know), a litre of milk, a pair of jeans, a monthly phone/broadband bill or a tank of petrol would be more useful in tracking inflation. Gold, copper, pork bellies, shipping, storage costs etc would be tracked in something like the Purchasing Managers Index. Share prices are pretty much irrelevant since buying shares isn't really consumption.
  - lotsofpulp 6y ago
    > The price of a new washing machine (amortised maybe, I don't know), a litre of milk, a pair of jeans, a monthly phone/broadband bill or a tank of petrol would be more useful in tracking inflation. That’s pocket change compared to the change in price for real estate, healthcare, education, childcare, taxes, and savings (assets for retirement and emergencies). At least for where I want to live. If I made a budget 15 years ago of my purchases in the next 15 years, the total price for the total of those purchases increased at far more than US government CPI figures. I get more bang for buck for my TV, but that’s offset by the extra few hundred thousand dollars for land, healthcare, etc.
    - ploika 6y ago
      Of course. Depending on where you live, most of what you mentioned is probably included in the CPI calculation. Rent, health insurance, education and childcare are all included in Ireland's CPI in some form, for example. I was trying to differentiate between increases in consumer prices (like the cost of a watch or running a car) and increases in cost/value of other stuff (like gold bullion or Tesla shares or whatever).
- TheCoelacanth 6y ago
  When I start eating gold and living in a Nasdaq, then that might matter as a measure of inflation.

enriquto 6y ago

> hardly grasp what is going on under the hood? And just glue external code together until it kinda works? Wait, isn't this what all of us do? Do some folks really understand things?

ben_w 6y ago
I try to, but I guess it depends what you mean by “really understand” — I’m happy so long as I know about the product logic, but @pjc50 has said of themselves something along the lines of “full stack at every level from the transistor to the UI” or similar (I can’t find a link to the actual comment, they post too much for that).
- jlokier 6y ago
  Possibly this one. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14191777 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14191777
  - ben_w 6y ago
    That certainly looks like the one I was thinking of, thank you.
gambiting 6y ago
I mean, I won't pretend I understand everything I do, but working in video games there's frequently no "external code" you can draw from, not even a Stack Overflow where you can ask questions. Over a year ago we got few prototype PS5 devkits dropped on our desks with some basic documentation available and were told to make it work - that's not something where you can ask for any help anywhere, because it's all NDA'ed and Sony engineers are extremely busy, so you just....have to figure stuff out by yourself.
sanxiyn 6y ago
Yes, I do.

ben_w 6y ago

This inflation calculator says the USA has had cumulative inflation of only 20%, not 100%, in the last 11 years; of 42% in the last 18 years; and of 48% in the last 20 years: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ I suspect your restaurant and café receipts are not representative of general price changes.

ArtTimeInvestor 6y ago
I suspect that website is not representative of general price changes. Maybe it looks at things that got easier to produce so they got cheaper via efficiency. They just don't sell cheaper because of inflation.
- Mauricebranagh 6y ago
  That's the elephant in the room with inflation measures (CPI CPIH RPI) the selection of the basket of goods can have a massive effect on the actual recorded rate - which may not be what the average person on the ground experiences. Governments have incentives to use this to flatter the results or change inflation measures eg the UK and its switch to CPI from RPI for a lot of things.
  - zelos 6y ago
    Presumably there's a big difference in the level of inflation experienced based on income level as well: someone just scraping by is going to be much more exposed to food and rent inflation than a developer on $100k.
    - foolmeonce 6y ago
      True, but the chosen measure is going to be the lowest inflation imaginable since it relates strongly the global price of goods instead of services cost. Poor people actually can't escape service costs and pay for a lot more (seemingly) mandatory service costs that go away when you have enough money to stay away from them. I.e. the costs of not having a fridge at all vs being able to bulk shop at a warehouse are all massively higher.

Loic 6y ago

For another reference point, the "cost of life index"[0] in Germany went from 79,9 (in 2000) to 105,8 (in 2020), a 32% increase. DESTATIS provide all the details of the calculations of this index and also how it changes over the years to adapt to the real cost of life (like everybody having a smartphone now but not in 1991). [0]: https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online?operation=previous&levelindex=1&step=1&titel=Ergebnis&levelid=1614268888541&acceptscookies=false https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online?operation=pre...