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> Not enough speculation is as bad as too much speculation. When every author of a blog is a genius, and spews such amazing pearls of non-wisdom. While some d

> Not enough speculation is as bad as too much speculation. When every author of a blog is a genius, and spews such amazing pearls of non-wisdom. While some degree of risk is required, undershooting gains is never as bad as losing everything, because you can continue to bet. Author is plain mathematically wrong about how martingales work. Optimism is never the "right" mindset. Better find some other way to be happy instead of believing untrue things. Game theoretical and mathematically optimal strategies may exist, as well as ones robust to missing information. FOMO is a major downfall of many an investor.

pinky1417 6y ago
I interpreted the author’s discussion of the “right” long-term mindset to mean that, in the absence of evidence to the contrary, it makes more sense to be optimistic than pessimistic about the future. Personally, based on the past performance of humanity, I expect the long-term future of the globe to be better than the past. It’s based on informed speculation: Hans Rosling’s Factfulness is relevant here. Sure, we might obliterate ourselves with nukes or destroy the world with greenhouse gas emissions, but I’m not going to operate under the assumption that we won’t figure things out and that WILL happen. As an investor, I share Buffett’s optimism about the future of America. Yes, we have many many fundamental challenges. Yes, it’s possible that, if you put all your money in a broad US market index today, your returns might be negative until a decade or two later. But I’ll continue to bet on America’s continued existence and success (albeit by picking assets I think are undervalued rather than the current price of the stock market). In other words, I think it’s rational to optimistically speculate that (1) America will continue to be an economic powerhouse and (2) price will eventually converge to value for most assets.
teslaberry 6y ago
Issac Newtown, quite the rationalist and genius died peniless due to RE-INVESTING all his proceeds into the south sea bubble. you can be as smart as you want, but emotional IQ and wisdom will win every cycle. cleverness and luck can only last so long before bad behavior wipes you out. then again, the cycle is what determines wipe outs in time. war and social disintigration cycles are so long and complex, they are often that much more impossible to predict , which is why so many politicians and generals are horrible at those games. there is almost no feedback loop to judge them by other than what we read as 'history' which is itself very often corrupted and false. at least in markets, there is a simple set of numbers by which to judge people.
biolurker1 6y ago
I would bet, although it's very difficult to identify, that not a single long term successful investor is a pessimist. Much like startups you need to be very optimistic to succeed like Elon.
throwaway0a5e 6y ago
>When every author of a blog is a genius, and spews such amazing pearls of non-wisdom. When it comes to blanket advice on complex and nuanced subjects I vastly prefer the "do just the right amount of X" blogspam type non-wisdom to the "always do X, never do Y" internet comment section (Reddit is a prime offender here) brand of non-wisdom. Even if they're both unhelpful at least the former is technically correct more often.

pinky1417 6y ago

I interpreted the author’s discussion of the “right” long-term mindset to mean that, in the absence of evidence to the contrary, it makes more sense to be optimistic than pessimistic about the future. Personally, based on the past performance of humanity, I expect the long-term future of the globe to be better than the past. It’s based on informed speculation: Hans Rosling’s Factfulness is relevant here. Sure, we might obliterate ourselves with nukes or destroy the world with greenhouse gas emissions, but I’m not going to operate under the assumption that we won’t figure things out and that WILL happen. As an investor, I share Buffett’s optimism about the future of America. Yes, we have many many fundamental challenges. Yes, it’s possible that, if you put all your money in a broad US market index today, your returns might be negative until a decade or two later. But I’ll continue to bet on America’s continued existence and success (albeit by picking assets I think are undervalued rather than the current price of the stock market). In other words, I think it’s rational to optimistically speculate that (1) America will continue to be an economic powerhouse and (2) price will eventually converge to value for most assets.

teslaberry 6y ago

Issac Newtown, quite the rationalist and genius died peniless due to RE-INVESTING all his proceeds into the south sea bubble. you can be as smart as you want, but emotional IQ and wisdom will win every cycle. cleverness and luck can only last so long before bad behavior wipes you out. then again, the cycle is what determines wipe outs in time. war and social disintigration cycles are so long and complex, they are often that much more impossible to predict , which is why so many politicians and generals are horrible at those games. there is almost no feedback loop to judge them by other than what we read as 'history' which is itself very often corrupted and false. at least in markets, there is a simple set of numbers by which to judge people.

biolurker1 6y ago

I would bet, although it's very difficult to identify, that not a single long term successful investor is a pessimist. Much like startups you need to be very optimistic to succeed like Elon.

throwaway0a5e 6y ago

>When every author of a blog is a genius, and spews such amazing pearls of non-wisdom. When it comes to blanket advice on complex and nuanced subjects I vastly prefer the "do just the right amount of X" blogspam type non-wisdom to the "always do X, never do Y" internet comment section (Reddit is a prime offender here) brand of non-wisdom. Even if they're both unhelpful at least the former is technically correct more often.