You are making predictions about the future based on opinions that have not been verified. The whole point of the article is that your intuitions about what is

You are making predictions about the future based on opinions that have not been verified. The whole point of the article is that your intuitions about what is true or false is unreliable. Instead it is better to experiment with different options and measure the results. Choose the best option based on real data rather than unreliable intuitions.