5 ms·

> Civilisations have collapsed before, and will collapse again. Civilizations have collapsed before... but none of those were nuclear-armed, global civilizatio

by jbotz 6y ago

> Civilisations have collapsed before, and will collapse again. Civilizations have collapsed before... but none of those were nuclear-armed, global civilizations that have produced more artifact matter than there is biomass on the planet[1]. Our civilization is epic... and when we collapse it will be equally epic, so I'm wouldn't bet that the whole "it has happened before and will happen again" thing really applies here. [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/human-made-stuff-now-outweighs-all-life-on-earth/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/human-made-stuff-...

marcus_holmes 6y ago
I don't understand. You're saying that because we've made a lot of stuff, if our civilisation collapses it'll destroy everything? How does one follow from the other?
- kiliantics 6y ago
  Intelligent life (at least, life which can build civilisation) has not experienced extinction events on earth before. If the current extinction event caused by climate change eventually includes the extinction of humans, which is becoming increasingly likely, it will be impossible for any future intelligent lifeforms to build civilisations. We have already extracted all of the easily-obtained resources that more primitive civilisations would require in order to develop.
- retrac 6y ago
  The scale really is fundamentally different. What we are now, and what ware doing now, is just completely unlike anything that existed until a couple hundred years ago. This chart on land use maybe helps make the point https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/land-use-over-the-long-term https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/land-use-over-the-long-te... The emerging global civilization entered some sort of exponential consumption curve a few hundred years ago and the entire planet has been swallowed up in it. The collapse will be of a scale and impact never before seen, because we've never seen anything like this. The usefulness of analogy to previous collapses seems limited to me. Consider just in absolute terms like the amount mined. We've strip-mined all the easily accessed deposits on the whole planet at this point. If there's a serious technological regression, will our descendants even have the means to access basic resources like lithium? We've extincted all sorts of species on a scale unlike previous civilizations, as well. Unlike every other previous collapsed civilization, there's no going back to the climate-stable and resource rich world of preindustrial humanity to try over again from.
  - marcus_holmes 6y ago
    Well, we have vast piles of resources sitting around in landfills ;) When the Roman Empire collapsed, and the Saxons saw the concrete aqueducts they left behind, they thought that a race of Giants had built them. They'd lost the ability to even comprehend what was involved in building such things any more. It took us about 1000 years to get back to that kind of constructional know-how. But the Saxons thrived meanwhile. It turns out that you don't actually need concrete aqueducts in order to make babies. I've wandered around SE Asia a bit. If Civilisation collapsed there's plenty of people there that wouldn't hear about it for a few years, and wouldn't care much even then. Life will go on. People will cope. They'll carry on having babies and growing food. If we can just somehow make sure the knowledge survives, it might not even matter that much. Our descendants can work out other ways of building stuff, more suitable to the circumstances they find themselves in. Who knows? They may develop better solutions because they never had the easily strip-mined resources. Japan had very poor iron ores. To make steel weapons they had to develop some incredible methods of forging this poor ore. They ended up producing (arguably) the best swords in the world. Constraints can be overcome and adapted to. We will cope.
- bearbawl 6y ago
  It feels obvious to me. More and more the World looks like a very tiny house. We’ve built tool and industrial processes that are bigger that our planet. Look at a cargo ship. Or a mine. It’s mind blowing.
  - marcus_holmes 6y ago
    Travel more :) The world is huge, and we are not as big as we like to think. Catch the Trans-Siberian. Or the Indian-Pacific for that matter. Watch as thousands of kilometers of untouched wilderness roll by. Visit some really poor countries and see the happiest people you've ever met living without technology. See the ruins of vast ancient temple complexes, remains of entire civilisations that are now just tourist traps. The world will go on without us.
    - bearbawl 6y ago
      Travel is actually the same. I can travel to the other side of the world in one day. It’s way too small, or what we built is way too good. And yes the world as a planet orbiting around a star will go without us. Or at least as a big giant stone.
      - marcus_holmes 6y ago
        Flying over somewhere is not the same as walking it, or even passing through it on a train. There is nothing we can do that will kill all life on Earth. We are simply not that powerful. As a race, we've been through Ice Ages that have seen most of the world covered in ice, and a narrow strip of habitable land around the equator. We survived all that with no technology to help us. Twice. We'll cope.

by jbotz 6y ago

marcus_holmes 6y ago

I don't understand. You're saying that because we've made a lot of stuff, if our civilisation collapses it'll destroy everything? How does one follow from the other?

kiliantics 6y ago
Intelligent life (at least, life which can build civilisation) has not experienced extinction events on earth before. If the current extinction event caused by climate change eventually includes the extinction of humans, which is becoming increasingly likely, it will be impossible for any future intelligent lifeforms to build civilisations. We have already extracted all of the easily-obtained resources that more primitive civilisations would require in order to develop.
retrac 6y ago
The scale really is fundamentally different. What we are now, and what ware doing now, is just completely unlike anything that existed until a couple hundred years ago. This chart on land use maybe helps make the point https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/land-use-over-the-long-term https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/land-use-over-the-long-te... The emerging global civilization entered some sort of exponential consumption curve a few hundred years ago and the entire planet has been swallowed up in it. The collapse will be of a scale and impact never before seen, because we've never seen anything like this. The usefulness of analogy to previous collapses seems limited to me. Consider just in absolute terms like the amount mined. We've strip-mined all the easily accessed deposits on the whole planet at this point. If there's a serious technological regression, will our descendants even have the means to access basic resources like lithium? We've extincted all sorts of species on a scale unlike previous civilizations, as well. Unlike every other previous collapsed civilization, there's no going back to the climate-stable and resource rich world of preindustrial humanity to try over again from.
- marcus_holmes 6y ago
  Well, we have vast piles of resources sitting around in landfills ;) When the Roman Empire collapsed, and the Saxons saw the concrete aqueducts they left behind, they thought that a race of Giants had built them. They'd lost the ability to even comprehend what was involved in building such things any more. It took us about 1000 years to get back to that kind of constructional know-how. But the Saxons thrived meanwhile. It turns out that you don't actually need concrete aqueducts in order to make babies. I've wandered around SE Asia a bit. If Civilisation collapsed there's plenty of people there that wouldn't hear about it for a few years, and wouldn't care much even then. Life will go on. People will cope. They'll carry on having babies and growing food. If we can just somehow make sure the knowledge survives, it might not even matter that much. Our descendants can work out other ways of building stuff, more suitable to the circumstances they find themselves in. Who knows? They may develop better solutions because they never had the easily strip-mined resources. Japan had very poor iron ores. To make steel weapons they had to develop some incredible methods of forging this poor ore. They ended up producing (arguably) the best swords in the world. Constraints can be overcome and adapted to. We will cope.
bearbawl 6y ago
It feels obvious to me. More and more the World looks like a very tiny house. We’ve built tool and industrial processes that are bigger that our planet. Look at a cargo ship. Or a mine. It’s mind blowing.
- marcus_holmes 6y ago
  Travel more :) The world is huge, and we are not as big as we like to think. Catch the Trans-Siberian. Or the Indian-Pacific for that matter. Watch as thousands of kilometers of untouched wilderness roll by. Visit some really poor countries and see the happiest people you've ever met living without technology. See the ruins of vast ancient temple complexes, remains of entire civilisations that are now just tourist traps. The world will go on without us.
  - bearbawl 6y ago
    Travel is actually the same. I can travel to the other side of the world in one day. It’s way too small, or what we built is way too good. And yes the world as a planet orbiting around a star will go without us. Or at least as a big giant stone.
    - marcus_holmes 6y ago
      Flying over somewhere is not the same as walking it, or even passing through it on a train. There is nothing we can do that will kill all life on Earth. We are simply not that powerful. As a race, we've been through Ice Ages that have seen most of the world covered in ice, and a narrow strip of habitable land around the equator. We survived all that with no technology to help us. Twice. We'll cope.