16 ms·
USD printing is offset by declines in velocity/circulation. see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V If USD sits idl
by howmayiannoyyou 6y ago
USD printing is offset by declines in velocity/circulation.
see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
If USD sits idle as FX reserves at the Bank of China in Apple's balance sheet, its inflationary impact is minimal. Same applies to excess reserves at banks.
see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCSRESNS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCSRESNS
Similarly, capital controls in certain countries further serve to reduce USD velocity, and increase the prices of instruments (eg. BTC) and assets (eg. Copper) that have some ability to circumvent capital controls.
see: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/capital-flows https://tradingeconomics.com/china/capital-flows
That said, CoV19 hit the global supply chain hard and there are inflationary pressures across a number of categories due to production declines. Short term inflation is a real possibility, reinforced by the lag between an increase in purchasing demand and supply capacity growth.
The Fed can soak up excess liquidity and the 344% can be cut in half without much fuss. The USGOV can withstand a temporary increase in rates because it is also sitting on a unprecedented cash reserves.
see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDTCBW https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDTCBW
tl;dr ... Money supply is one sensational chapter in a complex and less emergent story.