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Considering the last post it was 70% and has apparently increased 5-fold since then, is this something to worry about?

by mjfl 6y ago

bondarchuk 6y ago
The way M1 is calculated was changed retroactively although I don't know how exactly.
SECProto 6y ago
There's something funny going on with the title of the other post - the chart in the link shows it jumping from 4000 to 16000 in April/May of 2020. So there hasn't been a sudden increase in the last month. But I don't know what any of this means, so I'll let more knowledgeable others weigh in
- bondarchuk 6y ago
  The title was correct then, as you can see on archive.org: http://web.archive.org/web/20210221170918/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 http://web.archive.org/web/20210221170918/https://fred.stlou...
epistasis 6y ago
The fear is that excessive money creation would create inflation. However, there's no sign of that happening any time soon. Given all the other massive massive shocks to the system, it doesn't seem that 350% was too much.
- cptskippy 6y ago
  > The fear is that excessive money creation would create inflation. However, there's no sign of that happening any time soon. Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that it accelerates inflation. Inflation doesn't happen in fits and spurts, it's on going and has been happening well beyond my entire life.
  - joshstrange 6y ago
    > Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that it accelerates inflation. Inflation doesn't happen in fits and spurts, it's on going and has been happening well beyond my entire life. Amen. I'm so tired of hearing "X might cause inflation" as if I haven't dealt with inflation for my entire life. Finding a non-bias source for "True Inflation" (aka, not the government who benefits from lower inflation because it directly impacts GDP) is hard but even using the government's numbers inflation is just shy of 100% (92.1%) since I was born, I will be 30 years old next month. That's ridiculous.
- godelzilla 6y ago
  Fortunately it's too much money for capital to spend on food and other inflatable necessities, so it's mostly going to pump up stocks, etc. No problem! :/
- legym 6y ago
  From what I read, it sounded like a lot of the money was printed but fell into areas of the economy where it didnt get distributed. i.e large corporations
airhead969 6y ago
It seems to me that investing in REITs and TIPS, and taking out huge fixed-rate loans now (where possible) on necessary capital assets or borrowing cash to invest would be a wise investment strategy.
- xwdv 6y ago
  Indeed, there has never been a better time to take out long term fixed-rate loans. In several years when inflation kicks in these loans will be much easier to pay off in future dollars. REITs, maybe not so much. Stocks in growth companies are still a better bet right now.
godelzilla 6y ago
It depends on whether your stocks are being propped up or whether your unlivable wage is being devalued or whether you care about unsustainable pyramid schemes.

Considering the last post it was 70% and has apparently increased 5-fold since then, is this something to worry about?

by mjfl 6y ago

Considering the last post it was 70% and has apparently increased 5-fold since then, is this something to worry about?

bondarchuk 6y ago

The way M1 is calculated was changed retroactively although I don't know how exactly.

SECProto 6y ago

There's something funny going on with the title of the other post - the chart in the link shows it jumping from 4000 to 16000 in April/May of 2020. So there hasn't been a sudden increase in the last month. But I don't know what any of this means, so I'll let more knowledgeable others weigh in

bondarchuk 6y ago
The title was correct then, as you can see on archive.org: http://web.archive.org/web/20210221170918/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 http://web.archive.org/web/20210221170918/https://fred.stlou...

epistasis 6y ago

The fear is that excessive money creation would create inflation. However, there's no sign of that happening any time soon. Given all the other massive massive shocks to the system, it doesn't seem that 350% was too much.

cptskippy 6y ago
> The fear is that excessive money creation would create inflation. However, there's no sign of that happening any time soon. Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that it accelerates inflation. Inflation doesn't happen in fits and spurts, it's on going and has been happening well beyond my entire life.
- joshstrange 6y ago
  > Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that it accelerates inflation. Inflation doesn't happen in fits and spurts, it's on going and has been happening well beyond my entire life. Amen. I'm so tired of hearing "X might cause inflation" as if I haven't dealt with inflation for my entire life. Finding a non-bias source for "True Inflation" (aka, not the government who benefits from lower inflation because it directly impacts GDP) is hard but even using the government's numbers inflation is just shy of 100% (92.1%) since I was born, I will be 30 years old next month. That's ridiculous.
godelzilla 6y ago
Fortunately it's too much money for capital to spend on food and other inflatable necessities, so it's mostly going to pump up stocks, etc. No problem! :/
legym 6y ago
From what I read, it sounded like a lot of the money was printed but fell into areas of the economy where it didnt get distributed. i.e large corporations

airhead969 6y ago

It seems to me that investing in REITs and TIPS, and taking out huge fixed-rate loans now (where possible) on necessary capital assets or borrowing cash to invest would be a wise investment strategy.

xwdv 6y ago
Indeed, there has never been a better time to take out long term fixed-rate loans. In several years when inflation kicks in these loans will be much easier to pay off in future dollars. REITs, maybe not so much. Stocks in growth companies are still a better bet right now.

godelzilla 6y ago

It depends on whether your stocks are being propped up or whether your unlivable wage is being devalued or whether you care about unsustainable pyramid schemes.