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That assumes CCP isn't doing anything. The reality is soon China will reach a point where they will be completely independent from the rest of the world. There

That assumes CCP isn't doing anything. The reality is soon China will reach a point where they will be completely independent from the rest of the world. There is currently very little they can't produce for themselves and, ironically, it is mostly semiconductors.

ColFrancis 6y ago
They are reliant on importing iron ore to sustain them at current rates. They would need to scale back everything in order to remove that reliance. In all the actions they've taken against Australia of late it's telling that they haven't touched that commodity.
- ianai 6y ago
  Good little rabbit hole to go down periodically: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/iron-ore-statistics-and-information https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/iron-ore-statistics-and-in...
- lmilcin 6y ago
  Iron ore is the only significant natural resource import of China but my understanding is the only reason they buy it from Australia is cost. China actually also produces iron ore but not at levels to sustain their demand. Also, China has recently started supplementing their iron ore supply by buying it from african countries, which will be much harder to convince to follow a potential embargo. Iron ore is available almost everywhere in the world but with varying difficulty of extracting. If you know geography, iron ore is a sediment in an ancient ocean which means most of the planet is covered with a band of the ore at varying depths.
tharne 6y ago
> There is currently very little they can't produce for themselves You forgot food
- meowster 6y ago
  An uneducated guess: If they're importing, it's probably because it's cheaper. I'm sure they have the land and technical capabilities to produce mass amounts of food.
  - lmilcin 6y ago
    China imports a lot of food but hey, they have 1.4B people. They already produce most of the food on their own and that "lots of food" is just foreign products for more variety. It is not critical in any way. Most people don't buy those anyway.
monkeydreams 6y ago
> The reality is soon China will reach a point where they will be completely independent from the rest of the world. There is a word for industrial, political and financial independence from the rest of the world - "sanctioned". Unless China were an entity far and away superior in every sense than every other country in the world (i.e. unless they were a Star Trek level culture living in our current world), striving for complete trade independence becomes a negative for their economic progress. China lacks many of the natural resources it must use to continue to grow. It must trade with the rest of the world to continue to grow; but the inverse is not true. The world DOES NOT need to trade with China.
- lmilcin 6y ago
  Well, people like you cause wars. China is a huge economy, soon to overtake US. No, they don't lack natural resources. What they do lack is knowledge in some key areas (semiconductors) but they seem to be capable enough to just steal whatever they need. What you seem to be forgetting is that US owes at least 1 trillion dollars to China and that overall, China holds over 2 trillion dollars in external debt. More than that, US needs even more debt and there aren't many places at the moment where you can get a loan of the size that US needs. Even more than that, US is currently incapable of producing much of the stuff they need and buying it from elsewhere (EU?) would cost a lot more. I am pretty sure it would be US that would be critically wounded by the sanctions. US companies are as much reliant on being able to offshore their work to China as Chinese companies getting that work from US. The difference is, that these Chinese companies are able to produce stuff on their own vs most US based companies having no production capabilities of their own.
  - monkeydreams 6y ago
    The point I made was that no nation should seek economic independence as it is equivalent to applying a sanction against yourself. This is true for everyone, not just China, not just the US. Now obviously you are upset about something, because you've launched into an attack that has NOTHING to do with this point. > Well, people like you cause wars. Doubtful. I tend to see the world as something more than a zero-sum game. I also don't run a country and have very little chance of ever doing so, let alone leading one to war. Also, in a world awash with cash, where bonds can be issued with a negative yield, and still find buyers, and where central banks can issue arbitrarily large sums of currency, this following comment is just plain confusing; > More than that, US needs even more debt and there aren't many places at the moment where you can get a loan of the size that US needs.

ColFrancis 6y ago

They are reliant on importing iron ore to sustain them at current rates. They would need to scale back everything in order to remove that reliance. In all the actions they've taken against Australia of late it's telling that they haven't touched that commodity.

ianai 6y ago
Good little rabbit hole to go down periodically: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/iron-ore-statistics-and-information https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/iron-ore-statistics-and-in...
lmilcin 6y ago
Iron ore is the only significant natural resource import of China but my understanding is the only reason they buy it from Australia is cost. China actually also produces iron ore but not at levels to sustain their demand. Also, China has recently started supplementing their iron ore supply by buying it from african countries, which will be much harder to convince to follow a potential embargo. Iron ore is available almost everywhere in the world but with varying difficulty of extracting. If you know geography, iron ore is a sediment in an ancient ocean which means most of the planet is covered with a band of the ore at varying depths.

tharne 6y ago

> There is currently very little they can't produce for themselves You forgot food

meowster 6y ago
An uneducated guess: If they're importing, it's probably because it's cheaper. I'm sure they have the land and technical capabilities to produce mass amounts of food.
- lmilcin 6y ago
  China imports a lot of food but hey, they have 1.4B people. They already produce most of the food on their own and that "lots of food" is just foreign products for more variety. It is not critical in any way. Most people don't buy those anyway.

monkeydreams 6y ago

> The reality is soon China will reach a point where they will be completely independent from the rest of the world. There is a word for industrial, political and financial independence from the rest of the world - "sanctioned". Unless China were an entity far and away superior in every sense than every other country in the world (i.e. unless they were a Star Trek level culture living in our current world), striving for complete trade independence becomes a negative for their economic progress. China lacks many of the natural resources it must use to continue to grow. It must trade with the rest of the world to continue to grow; but the inverse is not true. The world DOES NOT need to trade with China.

lmilcin 6y ago
Well, people like you cause wars. China is a huge economy, soon to overtake US. No, they don't lack natural resources. What they do lack is knowledge in some key areas (semiconductors) but they seem to be capable enough to just steal whatever they need. What you seem to be forgetting is that US owes at least 1 trillion dollars to China and that overall, China holds over 2 trillion dollars in external debt. More than that, US needs even more debt and there aren't many places at the moment where you can get a loan of the size that US needs. Even more than that, US is currently incapable of producing much of the stuff they need and buying it from elsewhere (EU?) would cost a lot more. I am pretty sure it would be US that would be critically wounded by the sanctions. US companies are as much reliant on being able to offshore their work to China as Chinese companies getting that work from US. The difference is, that these Chinese companies are able to produce stuff on their own vs most US based companies having no production capabilities of their own.
- monkeydreams 6y ago
  The point I made was that no nation should seek economic independence as it is equivalent to applying a sanction against yourself. This is true for everyone, not just China, not just the US. Now obviously you are upset about something, because you've launched into an attack that has NOTHING to do with this point. > Well, people like you cause wars. Doubtful. I tend to see the world as something more than a zero-sum game. I also don't run a country and have very little chance of ever doing so, let alone leading one to war. Also, in a world awash with cash, where bonds can be issued with a negative yield, and still find buyers, and where central banks can issue arbitrarily large sums of currency, this following comment is just plain confusing; > More than that, US needs even more debt and there aren't many places at the moment where you can get a loan of the size that US needs.