7 ms·

Well, if it is more deadly, the the article states "is associated with severe illness and death", then it will automatically bring down cases, as people die. T

Well, if it is more deadly, the the article states "is associated with severe illness and death", then it will automatically bring down cases, as people die. The problem with Covid-19 (the original strain and also most of its variants) is that it is not THAT deadly, which results in hosts remaining alive, and transmitting on the disease. Yes, what I am saying above sounds counter-intuitive and even harsh, but this is the case. Long term, I see the more deadly variants dying off, and the less deadly variants remaining with us forever.

gnicholas 6y ago
> then it will automatically bring down cases, as people die. This would be true if it killed people quickly. But if it kills people slowly, then it is not necessarily true. AFAIK, there is no indication that it kills people more quickly than the other variants.
- cm2187 6y ago
  I think it's less a problem of how quickly it kills people rather than how strong are the symptoms. And the strength of the symptoms I would assume is very correlated to its deadliness. What makes this virus travel very far is precisely the fact that it is not very deadly and that half the carriers don't even realise they had it.
rurban 6y ago
Exactly. The problem is exactly the "and is associated with severe illness and death, researchers said." Irresponsible. Those new mutations all have a much higher transmissibility rate because they cause much less severe harm, have a much higher asymptotic rate, ie go undetected, same as with kids spreading around the flu. The original variant can be compared to the common cold, but just with an IFR of 20%, whilst the common cold has an IFR of 8% against the target groups. (Elderly over 75, plus broken immunity system) The mutations go now against the common cold variants, the problem is really the extreme high R rate, naturally at around 3.5. You cannot stop that with lockdowns, only by protecting the target groups. We saw that this winter that the virus escapes all strict measures. Of course 3.5 is uncontrollable that way. That's what all experts said for a year. Vaccination helps a lot, protecting the elderly helps most, and less severe mutations (gradual degration) also help a lot reaching herd immunity. Eventually it goes to the common cold, just much more problematic for the old and ill. The 8% natural death rate for those with the common cold is big enough, the expected 10-15% even more, but no cause for hysteria. Cancer, heart deaths and traffic accidents are still far more problematic, more than by factor 10. All statistical measurements in areas with a high rate of mutations show that it's much less severe. In percent and in absolute numbers. Hospitalization goes down.
- underwater 6y ago
  Do you have a citation for the common cold being fatal for 8% of people over 75. That doesn't pass the sniff test. One in 12 people who catch a cold die from it?
  - rurban 6y ago
    Yes. 8% in the target group die from the common cold. 20% from Covid-19. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2095096/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2095096/ Severity of the latest mutations: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.28.21250680v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.28.21250680v...
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - underwater 6y ago
      That first link is about a particular strain of coronavirus (which causes lower respiratory tract infections) amongst 95 residents of a care facility. How does that generalise to all forms of the common cold and all over 75's?

gnicholas 6y ago

> then it will automatically bring down cases, as people die. This would be true if it killed people quickly. But if it kills people slowly, then it is not necessarily true. AFAIK, there is no indication that it kills people more quickly than the other variants.

cm2187 6y ago
I think it's less a problem of how quickly it kills people rather than how strong are the symptoms. And the strength of the symptoms I would assume is very correlated to its deadliness. What makes this virus travel very far is precisely the fact that it is not very deadly and that half the carriers don't even realise they had it.

rurban 6y ago

Exactly. The problem is exactly the "and is associated with severe illness and death, researchers said." Irresponsible. Those new mutations all have a much higher transmissibility rate because they cause much less severe harm, have a much higher asymptotic rate, ie go undetected, same as with kids spreading around the flu. The original variant can be compared to the common cold, but just with an IFR of 20%, whilst the common cold has an IFR of 8% against the target groups. (Elderly over 75, plus broken immunity system) The mutations go now against the common cold variants, the problem is really the extreme high R rate, naturally at around 3.5. You cannot stop that with lockdowns, only by protecting the target groups. We saw that this winter that the virus escapes all strict measures. Of course 3.5 is uncontrollable that way. That's what all experts said for a year. Vaccination helps a lot, protecting the elderly helps most, and less severe mutations (gradual degration) also help a lot reaching herd immunity. Eventually it goes to the common cold, just much more problematic for the old and ill. The 8% natural death rate for those with the common cold is big enough, the expected 10-15% even more, but no cause for hysteria. Cancer, heart deaths and traffic accidents are still far more problematic, more than by factor 10. All statistical measurements in areas with a high rate of mutations show that it's much less severe. In percent and in absolute numbers. Hospitalization goes down.

underwater 6y ago
Do you have a citation for the common cold being fatal for 8% of people over 75. That doesn't pass the sniff test. One in 12 people who catch a cold die from it?
- rurban 6y ago
  Yes. 8% in the target group die from the common cold. 20% from Covid-19. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2095096/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2095096/ Severity of the latest mutations: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.28.21250680v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.28.21250680v...
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - underwater 6y ago
    That first link is about a particular strain of coronavirus (which causes lower respiratory tract infections) amongst 95 residents of a care facility. How does that generalise to all forms of the common cold and all over 75's?