5 ms·

Odd that there’s no discussion of the fact that case counts are currently plummeting in California.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
chki 6y ago
If a new variant emerges during a "recession" of the original variant, it will automatically hide within the high case numbers of the original variant.
simonh 6y ago
Well, obviously both can be true at the same time - the new strain can be more infectious but overall case counts can be under control due to more effective control measures and lockdown discipline. You're coming off a huge bloom in cases from the double holiday and New Year period in the US when a lot of people mixed over a period of a month or more. Maybe this strain explains the high prevalence of the disease in California despite relatively restrictive and early lockdown measures. Ive seen that cited several times here, relative to Florida, to argue that lockdowns don't make any difference.
- kenneth 6y ago
  Florida also celebrates Thanksgiving / Christmas / New Year. So any comparisons showing CA's abject failure at containing the virus despite some of the harshest lockdown measures (while Florida performs similarly with a far older population) is just as valid in light of the holidays existing. CA's Covid measures were disastrous, adding economic misery on top of health misery for zero benefit. Don't let people distract us from that fact.
  - simonh 6y ago
    My apologies I thought I had been clear I mentioned I was talking about the case rate in the US generally has declined, not just CA.
  - mike_d 6y ago
    Florida has 15 more deaths per 100k than California, so, no?
    - votepaunchy 6y ago
      Florida has fewer deaths than California in both the 65-and-over cohort as well as the under-65 cohort. Simpson’s Paradox due to an older, more at-risk population.
- cheph 6y ago
  > overall case counts can be under control due to more effective control measures and lockdown discipline. They eased lockdowns and the daily case and death count on the day they implemented the regional stay at home order was higher than on the day they revoked it, which was about a month ago, and since then the downward trend has continued. What exactly are the more effective lockdown discipline? Maybe it is allowing filming to go on without any hindrance, allowing outdoor kartering for films, but shutting down outdoor dining at the exact same location for regular folks who do not have multi million dollar budgets and political connections so they can loose everything they ever worked for?
- surfmike 6y ago
  Yes, good analysis and would have hoped that an alarmist article would grapple with that data point. I think there’s a very good chance the strain is behind our second wave too.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

chki 6y ago

If a new variant emerges during a "recession" of the original variant, it will automatically hide within the high case numbers of the original variant.

simonh 6y ago

Well, obviously both can be true at the same time - the new strain can be more infectious but overall case counts can be under control due to more effective control measures and lockdown discipline. You're coming off a huge bloom in cases from the double holiday and New Year period in the US when a lot of people mixed over a period of a month or more. Maybe this strain explains the high prevalence of the disease in California despite relatively restrictive and early lockdown measures. Ive seen that cited several times here, relative to Florida, to argue that lockdowns don't make any difference.

kenneth 6y ago
Florida also celebrates Thanksgiving / Christmas / New Year. So any comparisons showing CA's abject failure at containing the virus despite some of the harshest lockdown measures (while Florida performs similarly with a far older population) is just as valid in light of the holidays existing. CA's Covid measures were disastrous, adding economic misery on top of health misery for zero benefit. Don't let people distract us from that fact.
- simonh 6y ago
  My apologies I thought I had been clear I mentioned I was talking about the case rate in the US generally has declined, not just CA.
- mike_d 6y ago
  Florida has 15 more deaths per 100k than California, so, no?
  - votepaunchy 6y ago
    Florida has fewer deaths than California in both the 65-and-over cohort as well as the under-65 cohort. Simpson’s Paradox due to an older, more at-risk population.
cheph 6y ago
> overall case counts can be under control due to more effective control measures and lockdown discipline. They eased lockdowns and the daily case and death count on the day they implemented the regional stay at home order was higher than on the day they revoked it, which was about a month ago, and since then the downward trend has continued. What exactly are the more effective lockdown discipline? Maybe it is allowing filming to go on without any hindrance, allowing outdoor kartering for films, but shutting down outdoor dining at the exact same location for regular folks who do not have multi million dollar budgets and political connections so they can loose everything they ever worked for?
surfmike 6y ago
Yes, good analysis and would have hoped that an alarmist article would grapple with that data point. I think there’s a very good chance the strain is behind our second wave too.