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This comes to mind: https://streamable.com/i9scnl https://streamable.com/i9scnl If you're going to put a dollar cost on irreversibly damaging the ecosystem, it

This comes to mind: https://streamable.com/i9scnl https://streamable.com/i9scnl If you're going to put a dollar cost on irreversibly damaging the ecosystem, it's going to be one you can't afford. Not in a thousand years.

ssivark 6y ago
It might be safer for biodiversity if economists don't think too much about it :P The biggest source of damage might well be "optimizing" with a badly-framed/biased model... while the short-term "value" can be easily argued for, the long-term costs will typically be underestimated/externalized.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
AnthonyMouse 6y ago
> If you're going to put a dollar cost on irreversibly damaging the ecosystem, it's going to be one you can't afford. Not in a thousand years. Doesn't work. You're essentially saying to assign the value of infinity. Then if there is a one in a trillion chance of ecosystem damage, you have to refuse even if the alternate is to definitely lose a billion lives. Can't be infinity. At this point you're at the old joke. Man asks a woman if she would have sex with him for a hundred billion dollars. She thinks about it a while and then concedes that yes, she would. The man then asks the woman if she would have sex with him for five dollars. She's offended. She says, what kind of woman do you think I am? The man replies that they've already established that and now they're just negotiating on the price. You can't just use an astronomical number. It has to be as accurate as possible because it's being traded off against other real things of significant importance. If the number is too low, bad things happen. But if the number is too high, different bad things happen.
- pii 6y ago
  Are you doing the reflexive disagreement thing? "Astronomical" is the cost of putting ecosystems on an irreversible, downward spiral.
  - AnthonyMouse 6y ago
    "Astronomical" isn't an actual number. You still have to decide if it's a billion dollars or a trillion dollars or a billion trillion dollars. It's possible, and harmful, to choose a number which is too large.
    - pyrale 6y ago
      Have you considered that, maybe, economy is simply not the right tool to consider the problem? Your question is like asking "How hard do I need to hit with the hammer on this puzzle to have the pieces fall in place?"
    - pii 6y ago
      I find myself agreeing with you and at the same time thinking that your position is absurd. Let me try to put this into words. I might be missing parts of your point. If we measure out the cost of avoiding total environmental collapse - which also implies human extinction - and we put a finite number on it, we've said 'the survival of human life on earth is worth this much and not more'. It's really hard for me to get my head around the idea that we would find a dollar value that has any meaning that would properly describe the limit of how much humans value their own survival. I wouldn't know where to start, what to measure, or what to exclude. I'd personally be loath to excluding anything, as a fan of existence. I'm not convinced I'm right to think putting a dollar value on existence is folly -- but I can't conceptualize what it would mean.
  - bryanrasmussen 6y ago
    if you can't put a real cost on something you can't actually weigh it, what happens if you say ecosystem damage is astronomical in cost and the loss of jobs if we don't build this dam costs 1.5 million dollars is the dam gets built because nobody has put any sort of measurable cost on what happens if the dam gets built. to win a game you have to play that game.
- chmod775 6y ago
  > You have to refuse even if the alternate is to definitely lose a billion lives. Can't be infinity. Well, if the entire ecosystem collapses humanity is guaranteed to die - unless we figure out how to eat acid and breathe toxic air. That's 7-8 billion lives.
RandomLensman 6y ago
Not in a thousand years, yes. But eventually all ecosystems on earth will end in a few billion years when the sun enters its red giant phase. So irreversible damage is coming absent some intervention. With that happening, "pricing" things will also have to account for whether the actions will lead to some sort of ecosystems lasting longer. The really long term will do amazing things with compounding...
- federona 6y ago
  You could account for billions of years in terms of money. Where as destroying things in a thousand because that is our business horizon is much more likely, and actually it's more like a year or two from current business practices, maybe a decade for long term thinking. If our business horizon was a billion years, then all the money and economic wealth in the world and quality of life indicators, and jobs would be so minuscule as to be a rounding error.
toto444 6y ago
> If you're going to put a dollar cost on irreversibly damaging the ecosystem, it's going to be one you can't afford. Not in a thousand years. Is there such a thing as a change that can't be reversed in a thousand year ? Just think of a scenario in which we stop consuming carbon and plastic overnight for a thousand year.
- pii 6y ago
  Extinction

ssivark 6y ago

It might be safer for biodiversity if economists don't think too much about it :P The biggest source of damage might well be "optimizing" with a badly-framed/biased model... while the short-term "value" can be easily argued for, the long-term costs will typically be underestimated/externalized.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

AnthonyMouse 6y ago

> If you're going to put a dollar cost on irreversibly damaging the ecosystem, it's going to be one you can't afford. Not in a thousand years. Doesn't work. You're essentially saying to assign the value of infinity. Then if there is a one in a trillion chance of ecosystem damage, you have to refuse even if the alternate is to definitely lose a billion lives. Can't be infinity. At this point you're at the old joke. Man asks a woman if she would have sex with him for a hundred billion dollars. She thinks about it a while and then concedes that yes, she would. The man then asks the woman if she would have sex with him for five dollars. She's offended. She says, what kind of woman do you think I am? The man replies that they've already established that and now they're just negotiating on the price. You can't just use an astronomical number. It has to be as accurate as possible because it's being traded off against other real things of significant importance. If the number is too low, bad things happen. But if the number is too high, different bad things happen.

pii 6y ago
Are you doing the reflexive disagreement thing? "Astronomical" is the cost of putting ecosystems on an irreversible, downward spiral.
- AnthonyMouse 6y ago
  "Astronomical" isn't an actual number. You still have to decide if it's a billion dollars or a trillion dollars or a billion trillion dollars. It's possible, and harmful, to choose a number which is too large.
  - pyrale 6y ago
    Have you considered that, maybe, economy is simply not the right tool to consider the problem? Your question is like asking "How hard do I need to hit with the hammer on this puzzle to have the pieces fall in place?"
  - pii 6y ago
    I find myself agreeing with you and at the same time thinking that your position is absurd. Let me try to put this into words. I might be missing parts of your point. If we measure out the cost of avoiding total environmental collapse - which also implies human extinction - and we put a finite number on it, we've said 'the survival of human life on earth is worth this much and not more'. It's really hard for me to get my head around the idea that we would find a dollar value that has any meaning that would properly describe the limit of how much humans value their own survival. I wouldn't know where to start, what to measure, or what to exclude. I'd personally be loath to excluding anything, as a fan of existence. I'm not convinced I'm right to think putting a dollar value on existence is folly -- but I can't conceptualize what it would mean.
- bryanrasmussen 6y ago
  if you can't put a real cost on something you can't actually weigh it, what happens if you say ecosystem damage is astronomical in cost and the loss of jobs if we don't build this dam costs 1.5 million dollars is the dam gets built because nobody has put any sort of measurable cost on what happens if the dam gets built. to win a game you have to play that game.
chmod775 6y ago
> You have to refuse even if the alternate is to definitely lose a billion lives. Can't be infinity. Well, if the entire ecosystem collapses humanity is guaranteed to die - unless we figure out how to eat acid and breathe toxic air. That's 7-8 billion lives.

RandomLensman 6y ago

Not in a thousand years, yes. But eventually all ecosystems on earth will end in a few billion years when the sun enters its red giant phase. So irreversible damage is coming absent some intervention. With that happening, "pricing" things will also have to account for whether the actions will lead to some sort of ecosystems lasting longer. The really long term will do amazing things with compounding...

federona 6y ago
You could account for billions of years in terms of money. Where as destroying things in a thousand because that is our business horizon is much more likely, and actually it's more like a year or two from current business practices, maybe a decade for long term thinking. If our business horizon was a billion years, then all the money and economic wealth in the world and quality of life indicators, and jobs would be so minuscule as to be a rounding error.

toto444 6y ago

> If you're going to put a dollar cost on irreversibly damaging the ecosystem, it's going to be one you can't afford. Not in a thousand years. Is there such a thing as a change that can't be reversed in a thousand year ? Just think of a scenario in which we stop consuming carbon and plastic overnight for a thousand year.

pii 6y ago
Extinction