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All your metric says is that YC has had some very large successes. It says nothing about how likely a given startup is to succeed. Just because YC can get their
by solosoyokaze 6y ago
All your metric says is that YC has had some very large successes. It says nothing about how likely a given startup is to succeed. Just because YC can get their hands on some good deals, it doesn't mean that most YC startups aren't crap that flame out. You have cause and effect reversed.
If you can get into YC then you can raise from any number of firms on equal footing.
- aerosmile 6y agoWould you be willing to bet that S20 won't exceed an IRR of 20%? Edit: for context, the comment I responded to was originally linking to the S20 batch and implied that the companies are weak.
- solosoyokaze 6y agoI would bet that 75% of those companies will be out of business in five years.
- aerosmile 6y agoSure, I'll take that bet, as long as we can bring it back to your original premise, which is that S20 sucks and that smart founders are better off skipping YC. For that point to be validated, we need to establish that a comparable cohort of non-YC companies will fare less well. So here's my proposal: We take all companies indexed on AngelList and isolate for those started in 2021. Then we separate them into YC and non-YC cohorts. In January of 2026, we will see which cohort has a higher rate of shut downs. Deal?
- solosoyokaze 6y agoThat would be extremely interesting, and yeah I'd put $100 into that bet.
- aerosmile 6y agoI am in. Here's my email: https://bit.ly/3bCwlYs https://bit.ly/3bCwlYs. Please confirm once you have it.
- solosoyokaze 6y agoWe need a platform for this, not an email address. Sort of like fantasy sports, only for VC.