Hmmm, the naive combinatoric guess would be: 1 - ((329500000 choose n_connections) / (330000000 choose n_connections)) right? That comes out to about 14% of

Hmmm, the naive combinatoric guess would be: 1 - ((329500000 choose n_connections) / (330000000 choose n_connections)) right? That comes out to about 14% of American should expect to know someone who died of covid if everyone knows 100 people and its completely random who dies. With some clustering of social networks this seems like a pretty unsurprising number. It mostly depends on how people defined "knowing" someone. I would have guessed the percentage would be higher personally, but then, I don't know anyone who died from COVID.