5 ms·

You can inflate the money supply and still be "deflationary" if the convenience yield of holding the money (tokens, UTXOs, or whatnot) exceeds or neutralize tha

by erwan 6y ago

You can inflate the money supply and still be "deflationary" if the convenience yield of holding the money (tokens, UTXOs, or whatnot) exceeds or neutralize that inflation rate. You make an excellent point, Bitcoin doesn't have to overtake gold or become a global-reserve to change the world. It just has to be a plausible alternative that enables people to opt-in or out of the system. It has largely already achieved that and I'm hopeful for a future of monetary pluralism.

redblacktree 6y ago
> I'm hopeful for a future of monetary pluralism. My big concern about monetary pluralism is what happens to US citizens, when their day-to-day currency stops being used as the reserve currency for the world? I have trouble imagining any way in which that turns out good for me, as someone living and working in the US. Anything you can do to assuage my fears, since you seem to be educated on the matter?
- spiralx 6y ago
  For one the USD is only the largest reserve currency used internationally: GBP, EUR and JPY are also used as reserve currencies. For another the US has been trying to reduce the role of the dollar as a reserve currency because it actually has significant downsides and fewer benefits than is popularly portrayed - this even has it's own term, "exorbitant privilege". Here's Ben Bernanke talking about it: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/01/07/the-dollars-international-role-an-exorbitant-privilege-2/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/01/07/the-d... TL;DR: the USD's reserve currency status is very much exaggerated.
  - redblacktree 6y ago
    Thank you, that was interesting reading. Not sure why you were downvoted.
    - spiralx 6y ago
      No problem, this is another article on the subject I'd bookmarked: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/the-reserve-currency-myth-the-us-dollars-current-and-future-role-in-the-world-economy https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/the-reserve-currency-myth-t...
- PragmaticPulp 6y ago
  As much as we hear about things like M1 money supply, the vast majority of wealth doesn’t exist in the form of cash. Investors hold companies, stocks, real estate, and so on. Fluctuations in money supply (or demand for currency) have exaggerated significance in online crypto discussions because crypto proponents find that angle more favorable to their “buy crypto” argument, not because it’s the full picture. The global reserve currency issue is worth watching, but remember that it isn’t a binary on/off switch where everyone changes overnight. Likewise, it’s not really true that USD is the global reserve currency so much as one of the most trusted. Again, crypto proponents like to suggest the collapse of the US currency is imminent, but the global market believes otherwise. Likewise, crypto proponents want you to believe that Bitcoin is the logical alternative, but again that’s missing the point that part of the reserve currency math depends on things like stability, resistance to manipulation, and backing of a powerful government.
Robotbeat 6y ago
It has? Bitcoin isn’t an alternative to the existing system for people. It might be a digital alternative to gold for people hedging inflation or in failed states, but its transaction fee is just way too high to be a practical alternative to anything but, like, wire transfers (Visa and ACH are WAY cheaper except for huge transfers... and Bitcoin isn’t particularly fast, either). And this high cost is driven by the fundamental non-scalability of the blockchain which requires other layers for the little people (and this is partly why you have people doing business through large companies like coinbase or whatever instead of the vision of decentralized cyberpunk utopia where everyone is at the same level and can directly make transactions using just math... which is the part of the original Bitcoin white paper that was fascinating to me). It’s primarily NOT an alternative to the existing system except that, as a speculative investment, it’s crowding out other more productive physical investments. I suppose it is helping people think outside the box, but I fear that Bitcoin is sucking a lot of air out of the room. We should be pushing for instant and extremely low-fee ACHs, alternatives to banks like credit unions where customers—as owners—hold more power, etc. Hopefully things move in that direction. That startup people see cryptocurrency as a way to lock up rents by becoming new gatekeepers for the blockchain (like banks are for the traditional system) or whatever is really a betrayal of the hacker ethos IMHO.
- kragen 6y ago
  If you live in a country with a highly functional banking system and no kleptocracy, Bitcoin is probably a bit puzzling unless you have family in Cuba. But it's not puzzling at all for those of us who live somewhere in the middle of the broad spectrum between Switzerland and Somalia, because most places have a little kleptocracy. Argentina is far from being "a failed state," but if you want to send US$500 abroad via non-Bitcoin means it's basically impossible, and the only broadly available savings vehicle is real estate ("ahorrar en ladrillos"), which of course grossly inflates real-estate prices, with a substantial part of the capital city occupied by empty apartments someone bought "as an investment". Historically Argentines have saved by buying dollars but that's limited to US$200 a month now, and then only if you have a non-under-the-table job (about a third of total employment is under the table): https://www.ambito.com/finanzas/dolares/cronologia-del-cepo-cambiario-se-cumple-un-ano-la-restriccion-impuesta-macri-n5129832 https://www.ambito.com/finanzas/dolares/cronologia-del-cepo-... You can see that in September 02019 when this measure was imposed the price of a dollar was AR$63.50; now it's AR$147. So whatever savings you had in pesos in 02019 have lost 57% of their value to peso devaluation. In 02001 a lot of Argentines had saved dollars in their dollar-denominated bank accounts. This did not preserve their savings through the financial crisis that year; the cash-strapped government limited withdrawals to a trickle, then converted dollar deposits to pesos at a one-to-one rate, then released the exchange-rate peg, at which point peso went overnight from being worth US$1 to being worth US$0.25 before settling at about US$0.31 for the next few years. You suggest, "alternatives to banks like credit unions where customers—as owners—hold more power," but Credicoop depositors suffered the same two-thirds confiscation of savings as depositors in for-profit banks. And they pay the same 3% tax on bank transactions including checks. That's more than a fast Bitcoin transaction fee of US$15 for transactions over US$500. But we're not a failed state. There are no gangs of bandits roving the streets in Argentine cities (though there are some pretty bad slums where you'll get robbed if you wander in without knowing anybody). Courts, free public hospitals, and roads continue to function, though there are more potholes than a year ago. Argentine infant mortality is 10 per 1000 live births, down from almost 20 in the late 01990s and the same as the late 01980s in the US; life expectancy at birth is 77 years, worse than Switzerland's 84, but the same as China and Hungary, and better than Saudi or Mexico. (Somalia is 54.) Most of the world is worse off than Argentina, although not necessarily in such a statistically transparent fashion. About one fourth of the people in the world are unbanked, 51% here in Argentina; even advanced countries like Russia, Hungary, and Uruguay have roughly a quarter of the population unbanked: https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/worlds-most-unbanked-countries https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/worlds-most-... And if your family lives in a country like Iran or Venezuela subject to US sanctions, and you live in the US? Good luck sending them an ACH, instant or otherwise! It's well known that Bitcoin is very popular in Venezuela, which kind of is a failed state, so one of the Venezuelan governments is trying to tax Bitcoin remittances at 15%. https://archive.fo/ZRXzS https://archive.fo/ZRXzS Bitcoin handles a few billion dollars per year in such remittances. This might seem like a trivial amount of money to someone in a rich country, but in poor countries, it's enough to keep several million people alive. Even in the US, it's common for the police to confiscate large amounts of paper currency just because they can ("civil forfeiture"); US bank accounts are probably fine for US$100K but probably somewhat risky for US$10M if the bank thinks you don't seem like the kind of person who ought to have it. US$10M in US$100 bills fits in a box you can wheel around on a dolly, but Bitcoin is a lot more practical. (And of course US$10M in dollar bills loses about US$200k per year to inflation.) So, Bitcoin doesn't have to be a cypherpunk utopia to be a big improvement on the status quo ante. For those of you living in stable countries where your worries are things like "instant and extremely low-fee ACHs" and "decentralized utopia", this may be very confusing, but try to remember that most of the world lives in places with much more pressing concerns, concerns that Bitcoin helps a lot with. And you may live there too, soon — the loyal subjects of Kaiser Wilhelm in 01913 certainly didn't expect that in 15 years they'd be in the middle of a hyperinflation episode that remains legendary a century later.

by erwan 6y ago

redblacktree 6y ago

> I'm hopeful for a future of monetary pluralism. My big concern about monetary pluralism is what happens to US citizens, when their day-to-day currency stops being used as the reserve currency for the world? I have trouble imagining any way in which that turns out good for me, as someone living and working in the US. Anything you can do to assuage my fears, since you seem to be educated on the matter?

spiralx 6y ago
For one the USD is only the largest reserve currency used internationally: GBP, EUR and JPY are also used as reserve currencies. For another the US has been trying to reduce the role of the dollar as a reserve currency because it actually has significant downsides and fewer benefits than is popularly portrayed - this even has it's own term, "exorbitant privilege". Here's Ben Bernanke talking about it: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/01/07/the-dollars-international-role-an-exorbitant-privilege-2/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/01/07/the-d... TL;DR: the USD's reserve currency status is very much exaggerated.
- redblacktree 6y ago
  Thank you, that was interesting reading. Not sure why you were downvoted.
  - spiralx 6y ago
    No problem, this is another article on the subject I'd bookmarked: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/the-reserve-currency-myth-the-us-dollars-current-and-future-role-in-the-world-economy https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/the-reserve-currency-myth-t...
PragmaticPulp 6y ago
As much as we hear about things like M1 money supply, the vast majority of wealth doesn’t exist in the form of cash. Investors hold companies, stocks, real estate, and so on. Fluctuations in money supply (or demand for currency) have exaggerated significance in online crypto discussions because crypto proponents find that angle more favorable to their “buy crypto” argument, not because it’s the full picture. The global reserve currency issue is worth watching, but remember that it isn’t a binary on/off switch where everyone changes overnight. Likewise, it’s not really true that USD is the global reserve currency so much as one of the most trusted. Again, crypto proponents like to suggest the collapse of the US currency is imminent, but the global market believes otherwise. Likewise, crypto proponents want you to believe that Bitcoin is the logical alternative, but again that’s missing the point that part of the reserve currency math depends on things like stability, resistance to manipulation, and backing of a powerful government.

Robotbeat 6y ago

It has? Bitcoin isn’t an alternative to the existing system for people. It might be a digital alternative to gold for people hedging inflation or in failed states, but its transaction fee is just way too high to be a practical alternative to anything but, like, wire transfers (Visa and ACH are WAY cheaper except for huge transfers... and Bitcoin isn’t particularly fast, either). And this high cost is driven by the fundamental non-scalability of the blockchain which requires other layers for the little people (and this is partly why you have people doing business through large companies like coinbase or whatever instead of the vision of decentralized cyberpunk utopia where everyone is at the same level and can directly make transactions using just math... which is the part of the original Bitcoin white paper that was fascinating to me). It’s primarily NOT an alternative to the existing system except that, as a speculative investment, it’s crowding out other more productive physical investments. I suppose it is helping people think outside the box, but I fear that Bitcoin is sucking a lot of air out of the room. We should be pushing for instant and extremely low-fee ACHs, alternatives to banks like credit unions where customers—as owners—hold more power, etc. Hopefully things move in that direction. That startup people see cryptocurrency as a way to lock up rents by becoming new gatekeepers for the blockchain (like banks are for the traditional system) or whatever is really a betrayal of the hacker ethos IMHO.

kragen 6y ago
If you live in a country with a highly functional banking system and no kleptocracy, Bitcoin is probably a bit puzzling unless you have family in Cuba. But it's not puzzling at all for those of us who live somewhere in the middle of the broad spectrum between Switzerland and Somalia, because most places have a little kleptocracy. Argentina is far from being "a failed state," but if you want to send US$500 abroad via non-Bitcoin means it's basically impossible, and the only broadly available savings vehicle is real estate ("ahorrar en ladrillos"), which of course grossly inflates real-estate prices, with a substantial part of the capital city occupied by empty apartments someone bought "as an investment". Historically Argentines have saved by buying dollars but that's limited to US$200 a month now, and then only if you have a non-under-the-table job (about a third of total employment is under the table): https://www.ambito.com/finanzas/dolares/cronologia-del-cepo-cambiario-se-cumple-un-ano-la-restriccion-impuesta-macri-n5129832 https://www.ambito.com/finanzas/dolares/cronologia-del-cepo-... You can see that in September 02019 when this measure was imposed the price of a dollar was AR$63.50; now it's AR$147. So whatever savings you had in pesos in 02019 have lost 57% of their value to peso devaluation. In 02001 a lot of Argentines had saved dollars in their dollar-denominated bank accounts. This did not preserve their savings through the financial crisis that year; the cash-strapped government limited withdrawals to a trickle, then converted dollar deposits to pesos at a one-to-one rate, then released the exchange-rate peg, at which point peso went overnight from being worth US$1 to being worth US$0.25 before settling at about US$0.31 for the next few years. You suggest, "alternatives to banks like credit unions where customers—as owners—hold more power," but Credicoop depositors suffered the same two-thirds confiscation of savings as depositors in for-profit banks. And they pay the same 3% tax on bank transactions including checks. That's more than a fast Bitcoin transaction fee of US$15 for transactions over US$500. But we're not a failed state. There are no gangs of bandits roving the streets in Argentine cities (though there are some pretty bad slums where you'll get robbed if you wander in without knowing anybody). Courts, free public hospitals, and roads continue to function, though there are more potholes than a year ago. Argentine infant mortality is 10 per 1000 live births, down from almost 20 in the late 01990s and the same as the late 01980s in the US; life expectancy at birth is 77 years, worse than Switzerland's 84, but the same as China and Hungary, and better than Saudi or Mexico. (Somalia is 54.) Most of the world is worse off than Argentina, although not necessarily in such a statistically transparent fashion. About one fourth of the people in the world are unbanked, 51% here in Argentina; even advanced countries like Russia, Hungary, and Uruguay have roughly a quarter of the population unbanked: https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/worlds-most-unbanked-countries https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/worlds-most-... And if your family lives in a country like Iran or Venezuela subject to US sanctions, and you live in the US? Good luck sending them an ACH, instant or otherwise! It's well known that Bitcoin is very popular in Venezuela, which kind of is a failed state, so one of the Venezuelan governments is trying to tax Bitcoin remittances at 15%. https://archive.fo/ZRXzS https://archive.fo/ZRXzS Bitcoin handles a few billion dollars per year in such remittances. This might seem like a trivial amount of money to someone in a rich country, but in poor countries, it's enough to keep several million people alive. Even in the US, it's common for the police to confiscate large amounts of paper currency just because they can ("civil forfeiture"); US bank accounts are probably fine for US$100K but probably somewhat risky for US$10M if the bank thinks you don't seem like the kind of person who ought to have it. US$10M in US$100 bills fits in a box you can wheel around on a dolly, but Bitcoin is a lot more practical. (And of course US$10M in dollar bills loses about US$200k per year to inflation.) So, Bitcoin doesn't have to be a cypherpunk utopia to be a big improvement on the status quo ante. For those of you living in stable countries where your worries are things like "instant and extremely low-fee ACHs" and "decentralized utopia", this may be very confusing, but try to remember that most of the world lives in places with much more pressing concerns, concerns that Bitcoin helps a lot with. And you may live there too, soon — the loyal subjects of Kaiser Wilhelm in 01913 certainly didn't expect that in 15 years they'd be in the middle of a hyperinflation episode that remains legendary a century later.