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This is a pretty useless metric for anything other than shock value.

im3w1l 6y ago
It's good if you want to understand how Americans as a group perceive the world. It affects which measures they will support and how they will respond to different arguments.
- CivBase 6y ago
  How does this inform us about how Americans perceive the world? The best I can figure out from this data is how many people the average American "knows". 329,484,123 (US pop) / 3 / 500,443 (COVID-19 deaths) = 219.46 Apparently the average American knows about 220 people. Impressive. EDIT: That's assuming each of the 1/3 Americans only knows exactly one person who has died of COVID-19. If we consider some of them know more than that, then the result should be even greater than 220.
  - im3w1l 6y ago
    When someone you know dies, it shakes you up and changes your perspective. This process has happened to 1/3.
    - CivBase 6y ago
      I'm sure more than 1/3 Americans know someone who has died in the last year. I'm sure that was also true last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, etc. If the psychological impact of death is your concern, there's little value in focusing on covid-specific deaths.
      - barnaclejive 6y ago
        > there's little value in focusing on covid-specific deaths You don't get it. You probably never will.
  - samspenc 6y ago
    I was wondering the same thing, so thanks for putting this together. My one suggestion would be to include only the adult population, since I'm guessing their data / surveys only include adults. 196M (approximate adult US pop) / 3 / 500K (COVID-19 deaths) ~= 130 But the numbers, i.e. average American knows somewhere between 130 to 219 people, seem a bit high.
kube-system 6y ago
It is useful when considering the social effects of the pandemic.
- CivBase 6y ago
  What social effects does this inform us about?
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    That there'll be a lot of people with varying levels of grief, loss, and trauma. This may have some long-term impacts on psychological health that we should be prepared to mitigate.
    - CivBase 6y ago
      Grief, loss, and trauma are hardly specific to covid-related deaths. If that's our concern, we should really be considering overall mortality rates (looks to be about 10-15% higher than previous years) and how many Americans know someone who has recently died, regardless of cause.
      - ceejayoz 6y ago
        I'd argue that mass casualty events have some specific characteristics that differ from the normal background noise of deaths that happen on a routine basis. 9/11, for example, had a pretty disparate impact versus the raw number of deaths it generated.
        CivBase 6y ago
        Sure, but the impact of a mass casualty event like 9/11 is not limited to people who knew the victims. Even though COVID-19 kills more Americans daily than the 9/11 attacks did, 9/11 has a comparable social impact because to most Americans it was an unanticipated, unprecedented act of human violence and we didn't know what to expect moving forward.
mytailorisrich 6y ago
Yes, it's just about finding a way to come up with the largest and thus most shocking number. It's sensationalist but not useful. The US population is 330 million and 500k people have now died of Covid. So for 1/3 of all Americans to know someone who died of Covid each victim must be known by 220 people on average. Now, a quick look at Google suggests that this is within the range of the number of people known by the average American (and maybe on the low side) [1] so saying that 1/3 of Americans 'know' someone who died of Covid really does not convey any new information. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/science/the-average-american-knows-how-many-people.html https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/science/the-average-ameri... Edit: Ahah I see you did the same calculation in another comment!
pupppet 6y ago
It's a useful metric to toss back at the Just the Flu crowd.
- CivBase 6y ago
  Not really. If you want to convince people that COVID-19 is significantly different the seasonal flu, all you have to do is compare COVID-19's ~500k death toll in 2020 to the flu's ~50k average death toll for recent years. That said, I haven't heard of anyone using the "just the flu" argument since the first couple months of the pandemic.
  - pupppet 6y ago
    >That said, I haven't heard of anyone using the "just the flu" argument since the first couple months of the pandemic. I'm jealous of the circles you run in.

It's good if you want to understand how Americans as a group perceive the world. It affects which measures they will support and how they will respond to different arguments.

CivBase 6y ago
How does this inform us about how Americans perceive the world? The best I can figure out from this data is how many people the average American "knows". 329,484,123 (US pop) / 3 / 500,443 (COVID-19 deaths) = 219.46 Apparently the average American knows about 220 people. Impressive. EDIT: That's assuming each of the 1/3 Americans only knows exactly one person who has died of COVID-19. If we consider some of them know more than that, then the result should be even greater than 220.
- im3w1l 6y ago
  When someone you know dies, it shakes you up and changes your perspective. This process has happened to 1/3.
  - CivBase 6y ago
    I'm sure more than 1/3 Americans know someone who has died in the last year. I'm sure that was also true last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, etc. If the psychological impact of death is your concern, there's little value in focusing on covid-specific deaths.
    - barnaclejive 6y ago
      > there's little value in focusing on covid-specific deaths You don't get it. You probably never will.
- samspenc 6y ago
  I was wondering the same thing, so thanks for putting this together. My one suggestion would be to include only the adult population, since I'm guessing their data / surveys only include adults. 196M (approximate adult US pop) / 3 / 500K (COVID-19 deaths) ~= 130 But the numbers, i.e. average American knows somewhere between 130 to 219 people, seem a bit high.

kube-system 6y ago

It is useful when considering the social effects of the pandemic.

CivBase 6y ago
What social effects does this inform us about?
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  That there'll be a lot of people with varying levels of grief, loss, and trauma. This may have some long-term impacts on psychological health that we should be prepared to mitigate.
  - CivBase 6y ago
    Grief, loss, and trauma are hardly specific to covid-related deaths. If that's our concern, we should really be considering overall mortality rates (looks to be about 10-15% higher than previous years) and how many Americans know someone who has recently died, regardless of cause.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      I'd argue that mass casualty events have some specific characteristics that differ from the normal background noise of deaths that happen on a routine basis. 9/11, for example, had a pretty disparate impact versus the raw number of deaths it generated.
      - CivBase 6y ago
        Sure, but the impact of a mass casualty event like 9/11 is not limited to people who knew the victims. Even though COVID-19 kills more Americans daily than the 9/11 attacks did, 9/11 has a comparable social impact because to most Americans it was an unanticipated, unprecedented act of human violence and we didn't know what to expect moving forward.

mytailorisrich 6y ago

Yes, it's just about finding a way to come up with the largest and thus most shocking number. It's sensationalist but not useful. The US population is 330 million and 500k people have now died of Covid. So for 1/3 of all Americans to know someone who died of Covid each victim must be known by 220 people on average. Now, a quick look at Google suggests that this is within the range of the number of people known by the average American (and maybe on the low side) [1] so saying that 1/3 of Americans 'know' someone who died of Covid really does not convey any new information. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/science/the-average-american-knows-how-many-people.html https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/science/the-average-ameri... Edit: Ahah I see you did the same calculation in another comment!

pupppet 6y ago

It's a useful metric to toss back at the Just the Flu crowd.

CivBase 6y ago
Not really. If you want to convince people that COVID-19 is significantly different the seasonal flu, all you have to do is compare COVID-19's ~500k death toll in 2020 to the flu's ~50k average death toll for recent years. That said, I haven't heard of anyone using the "just the flu" argument since the first couple months of the pandemic.
- pupppet 6y ago
  >That said, I haven't heard of anyone using the "just the flu" argument since the first couple months of the pandemic. I'm jealous of the circles you run in.