5 ms·

It's a poll, not a meaningful analysis. Anecdotal experience is all that's needed to know it's BS.

parhamn 6y ago
The anecdotal experience is just as garbage though. Something like this will have very clustered behavior. I.e one grandma dying will color up quite a large number of people (probably 50+). The number is very fathomable.
refenestrator 6y ago
Polls are meaningful analysis. They always publish the details somewhere, in this case the analysis is here: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-02/topline-axios-ipsos-coronavirus-index-w39.pdf https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/... 1,000-person panel, weekly poll over the last 52 weeks. That's a little small, but not that small. I wouldn't trust statements about demographic minorities out of their tiny fraction, but the 1-in-3 number across all 1,000 probably scales up with a single-digit MoE.
ainiriand 6y ago
And yet there are more than 500k deaths in a population of 330M. I mean, the odds are there.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- adolph 6y ago
  So what are the odds that 110M know one of .5M USA persons? "Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. . . . It has been proposed to lie between 100 and 250, with a commonly used value of 150."[0] So .5 * 150 = 75; .5 * 250 = 125, so 110 is in the upper range of Dunbar's number which may reflect asymmetric "personal knowing," whereby someone may be personally known to others even if the others might not be personally known to someone. To me this makes intuitive sense since the disease mortality is skewed toward older people who I think would be known by more people. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number
aetherane 6y ago
I think it depends a lot on what type of job you and your family members have and where you live.

The anecdotal experience is just as garbage though. Something like this will have very clustered behavior. I.e one grandma dying will color up quite a large number of people (probably 50+). The number is very fathomable.

refenestrator 6y ago

Polls are meaningful analysis. They always publish the details somewhere, in this case the analysis is here: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-02/topline-axios-ipsos-coronavirus-index-w39.pdf https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/... 1,000-person panel, weekly poll over the last 52 weeks. That's a little small, but not that small. I wouldn't trust statements about demographic minorities out of their tiny fraction, but the 1-in-3 number across all 1,000 probably scales up with a single-digit MoE.

ainiriand 6y ago

And yet there are more than 500k deaths in a population of 330M. I mean, the odds are there.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
adolph 6y ago
So what are the odds that 110M know one of .5M USA persons? "Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. . . . It has been proposed to lie between 100 and 250, with a commonly used value of 150."[0] So .5 * 150 = 75; .5 * 250 = 125, so 110 is in the upper range of Dunbar's number which may reflect asymmetric "personal knowing," whereby someone may be personally known to others even if the others might not be personally known to someone. To me this makes intuitive sense since the disease mortality is skewed toward older people who I think would be known by more people. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number

aetherane 6y ago

I think it depends a lot on what type of job you and your family members have and where you live.