3 ms·
This is the most important part of the essay: Uncertainty remains, research sometimes conflicts and biological pathways aren’t always clear. There are compe
by avsteele 6y ago
This is the most important part of the essay:
Uncertainty remains, research sometimes conflicts and biological pathways aren’t always clear. There are competing theories about whether the sperm count decline is real and what might cause it and about why girls appear to be reaching puberty earlier, and it’s sometimes unclear whether an increase in male genital abnormalities reflects actual rising numbers or just better reporting.
You should maintain a very low prior probability of this being true without more information. Remember correlation usually != causation
https://www.gwern.net/Causality https://www.gwern.net/Causality
There are a lot of other possible causes for all the these declines. (obesity and lower physical activity being only the most likely-seeming to me)
- galangalalgol 6y agoObesity being a correlation might mean it is also a symptom. We already know from a couple studies that people with the same activity level and calorie intake are significantly more overweight than in the 80s. One leading hypothesis is endocrine disruptors.
- ntsplnkv2 6y agoI'd be very wary of any studies that ask people to identify "activity level."
- galangalalgol 6y agoThat does seem the weak point. The body can conserve calories in many hard to observe ways. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1871403X15001210 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S18714...
- klmadfejno 6y agoPossible, but I would tend to bet its just a high sugar and sweetener diet more than anything. Obesity is not uniform at all. In pre covid days of seeing many people, I would rarely see anyone who is obese (northeast american), but that's because I'm in an upper middle class bubble. These days I'm pretty good about avoiding heating up plastics and what not. Growing up it wasn't on our radar at all. Point I'm trying to make is plastic exposure is pretty high for all populations, whereas diet varies tremendously by social class, and the composition of it has changed significantly since the 80s.
- galangalalgol 6y agoAlso we traded cocaine and cigarettes for pot and booze (alcohol usage is much higher than the 80s).
- jeffreyrogers 6y agoIf something could be very harmful you should avoid it out of precaution. And many of these chemicals are known endocrine disrupters, so just because there is no slam dunk evidence there is a lot of circumstantial and anecdotal evidence that indicates a problem with these substances. Plus, the people who avoid them are almost invariably healthier, so taking steps to avoid them seems to have positive effects anyways.