4 ms·

i think the way forward is electric scooters. Some like the xiaomi are cheap, have really decent figures and are actually very useful for getting you places in

i think the way forward is electric scooters. Some like the xiaomi are cheap, have really decent figures and are actually very useful for getting you places in town. But they are not road legal. For some inane reason the answer to pollution in cities has been banned and those who dare ignore the ban endanger their licence. So we are left with bloated, overpriced, electric cars which benefit the fewest possible number of people.

baybal2 6y ago
It's very hard to make an electric scooter competitive with 150cc which is a mode of transport for probably a billion people. 150cc will be better, and cheaper no matter what you try. I researched the problem extensively when I worked in a number of companies working in the electric scooter space. Cheapest 150cc scooters sell for $500 — that's the price of a battery pack to make a scooter with comparable range to 150cc on one tank of fuel. Prices ease in 250cc-300cc segment significantly. $1500-$3000 for low end scooter in this segment, but the majority of scooters in this segment are not that low end. You can sell 300cc for $3000-$5000 easily even in places like Vietnam, and Indonesia.
- marshmallow_12 6y ago
  if you can get 150cc for 500 then i'm living in the wrong country. In london they are ideal.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    An Asian 150cc is definitely not what you get in London. It would be the most barebones scooter you can imagine, with motor making less than 10hp, body made from very thin metal, and it will rust to nothing in 5 years.
    - oblio 6y ago
      Worse than that, it would probably have 0 particle filters of any kind, so the fumes will probably be horrendous.
- haspok 6y ago
  That's why we need regulations that will ban the sale of any new non-eletric vehicle in the next 5-10-15 years. Thankfully Europe is going in this direction. Asia not so much.
- specialist 6y ago
  > I researched the problem extensively... Just curious: Did your efforts identify the sweet spots, given misc costs. Like the "makes sense" price as carbon costs rise and battery cost per amp fall. Factoring weight, distance, speed, recharge times, etc. Why I ask: The most interesting part of the Tesla origin story, to me, is the recognition that laptop battery cost per amp trends would make full-sized EV automobile viable. So they jumped in to catch that wave. Timing is important. Separately: I'm also curious what the market segmentation line is between bike and scooter. eg Maybe bikes can peel away some of the scooter market. I've observed that biked wheel sizes are getting smaller as well as getting cargo features. So why not?
  - baybal2 6y ago
    I did. First is still the same 150cc replacement since the niche is sooo big. Even if you cost as much as best 150cc on the market, somebody will still buy it for electric convenience, so load it up with cheap fancy features too like cruise control, seat heater etc. A good 150cc has around 7-8kw of power, and it is the upper limit of a hub motor, and passive cooling, which you should capitalise on. 4.5kwh battery for 50-60km range. 6kwh premium option for around 80km. Air cooled motor controller for a completely liquid free design. Screechingly, you can fit into $5000-6000 premium 150cc segment.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    Second is 250cc-300cc equivalent. Basically an Nmax, or Xmax killer. From that segment, people do expect real speed, and some semblance of a highway rideability. This definitely needs above 10kw motor, which means liquid cooling, and bye bye hub motor. Batteries need to be MUCH larger since what's the fun of riding on a highway if you can only drive 60km? Think of up to 10-12kwh options. Huge batteries also assume longer charging, or higher currents. Since we already went with liquid cooling for motor, liquid cooling a battery pack is the next logical step, and same is for motor controller. Charger circuit will likely have to be dedicated as you will likely go above 16 cells. Weight will be an issue. If you go above 180kg (Xmax 300) you will scare off a lot of women buyers. The dynamic options of the chassis will also become important, so more will go into non-powertrain parts. Try to squeeze into $8k USD. In Asia, it's quite a luxury segment, so fit it accordingly.
KozmoNau7 6y ago
Stand up scooters (as opposed to motorcycle-style scooters, for clarity) are best suited to short-distance travel, as an alternative to walking more so than an alternative to cars, bicycles or motorcycles/scooters. That makes them very well suited to last mile transportation, getting you to and from the nearest public transit point, especially since most models fold for easy transport on a bus or train. As standalone personal transportation, they are handy for going a few city blocks while carrying at most a shoulder bag or backpack. Compare this to (e-)bikes and electric motorcycles/scooters, which can carry significantly larger amounts of cargo, are inherently more stable to ride and cope well with less optimal road surfaces that would be troublesome for the small wheels on a stand up scooter. Especially for parts of the world with less-maintained roads or a high amount of dirt roads, a basic bike is vastly superior to a stand up scooter. Similarly, the tiny electric cars mentioned in the article have more carrying capacity and as a bonus feature they shield you more from the elements. Personally I don't mind throwing on a rain poncho and rain pants when riding in adverse conditions, but not everyone is comfortable doing that. Getting people into these tiny cars is much preferable to them driving a large (possibly electric) car in the city. They're an affordable and gentler alternative to traditional cars, not a replacement for low-profile personal transport like stand up scooters and bikes. They may displace motorcycles/scooters, but I count than as either a wash or perhaps a win, if they get 2-stroke scooters off the roads. As for the legal issues surrounding stand up scooters, I understand why some scooter sharing apps and companies have been called out and in some cases banned. They litter the cities with scooters, don't care if they're just strewn around everywhere, blocking sidewalks and bike paths, and they use barely-paid gig economy workers in open ugly competition with each other, as their recharging "solution". But in some places even personal electric stand up scooters have been banned or at least have not been made explicitly legal on bike paths. That is an absolute travesty, we need as many people as possible to use low-impact transportation instead of their cars.

baybal2 6y ago

It's very hard to make an electric scooter competitive with 150cc which is a mode of transport for probably a billion people. 150cc will be better, and cheaper no matter what you try. I researched the problem extensively when I worked in a number of companies working in the electric scooter space. Cheapest 150cc scooters sell for $500 — that's the price of a battery pack to make a scooter with comparable range to 150cc on one tank of fuel. Prices ease in 250cc-300cc segment significantly. $1500-$3000 for low end scooter in this segment, but the majority of scooters in this segment are not that low end. You can sell 300cc for $3000-$5000 easily even in places like Vietnam, and Indonesia.

marshmallow_12 6y ago
if you can get 150cc for 500 then i'm living in the wrong country. In london they are ideal.
- baybal2 6y ago
  An Asian 150cc is definitely not what you get in London. It would be the most barebones scooter you can imagine, with motor making less than 10hp, body made from very thin metal, and it will rust to nothing in 5 years.
  - oblio 6y ago
    Worse than that, it would probably have 0 particle filters of any kind, so the fumes will probably be horrendous.
haspok 6y ago
That's why we need regulations that will ban the sale of any new non-eletric vehicle in the next 5-10-15 years. Thankfully Europe is going in this direction. Asia not so much.
specialist 6y ago
> I researched the problem extensively... Just curious: Did your efforts identify the sweet spots, given misc costs. Like the "makes sense" price as carbon costs rise and battery cost per amp fall. Factoring weight, distance, speed, recharge times, etc. Why I ask: The most interesting part of the Tesla origin story, to me, is the recognition that laptop battery cost per amp trends would make full-sized EV automobile viable. So they jumped in to catch that wave. Timing is important. Separately: I'm also curious what the market segmentation line is between bike and scooter. eg Maybe bikes can peel away some of the scooter market. I've observed that biked wheel sizes are getting smaller as well as getting cargo features. So why not?
- baybal2 6y ago
  I did. First is still the same 150cc replacement since the niche is sooo big. Even if you cost as much as best 150cc on the market, somebody will still buy it for electric convenience, so load it up with cheap fancy features too like cruise control, seat heater etc. A good 150cc has around 7-8kw of power, and it is the upper limit of a hub motor, and passive cooling, which you should capitalise on. 4.5kwh battery for 50-60km range. 6kwh premium option for around 80km. Air cooled motor controller for a completely liquid free design. Screechingly, you can fit into $5000-6000 premium 150cc segment.
- baybal2 6y ago
  Second is 250cc-300cc equivalent. Basically an Nmax, or Xmax killer. From that segment, people do expect real speed, and some semblance of a highway rideability. This definitely needs above 10kw motor, which means liquid cooling, and bye bye hub motor. Batteries need to be MUCH larger since what's the fun of riding on a highway if you can only drive 60km? Think of up to 10-12kwh options. Huge batteries also assume longer charging, or higher currents. Since we already went with liquid cooling for motor, liquid cooling a battery pack is the next logical step, and same is for motor controller. Charger circuit will likely have to be dedicated as you will likely go above 16 cells. Weight will be an issue. If you go above 180kg (Xmax 300) you will scare off a lot of women buyers. The dynamic options of the chassis will also become important, so more will go into non-powertrain parts. Try to squeeze into $8k USD. In Asia, it's quite a luxury segment, so fit it accordingly.

KozmoNau7 6y ago

Stand up scooters (as opposed to motorcycle-style scooters, for clarity) are best suited to short-distance travel, as an alternative to walking more so than an alternative to cars, bicycles or motorcycles/scooters. That makes them very well suited to last mile transportation, getting you to and from the nearest public transit point, especially since most models fold for easy transport on a bus or train. As standalone personal transportation, they are handy for going a few city blocks while carrying at most a shoulder bag or backpack. Compare this to (e-)bikes and electric motorcycles/scooters, which can carry significantly larger amounts of cargo, are inherently more stable to ride and cope well with less optimal road surfaces that would be troublesome for the small wheels on a stand up scooter. Especially for parts of the world with less-maintained roads or a high amount of dirt roads, a basic bike is vastly superior to a stand up scooter. Similarly, the tiny electric cars mentioned in the article have more carrying capacity and as a bonus feature they shield you more from the elements. Personally I don't mind throwing on a rain poncho and rain pants when riding in adverse conditions, but not everyone is comfortable doing that. Getting people into these tiny cars is much preferable to them driving a large (possibly electric) car in the city. They're an affordable and gentler alternative to traditional cars, not a replacement for low-profile personal transport like stand up scooters and bikes. They may displace motorcycles/scooters, but I count than as either a wash or perhaps a win, if they get 2-stroke scooters off the roads. As for the legal issues surrounding stand up scooters, I understand why some scooter sharing apps and companies have been called out and in some cases banned. They litter the cities with scooters, don't care if they're just strewn around everywhere, blocking sidewalks and bike paths, and they use barely-paid gig economy workers in open ugly competition with each other, as their recharging "solution". But in some places even personal electric stand up scooters have been banned or at least have not been made explicitly legal on bike paths. That is an absolute travesty, we need as many people as possible to use low-impact transportation instead of their cars.