4 ms·
It's absurdly complicated, but....as I understand it, yes. 1. CCIV sold shared at $10 each, raising a bit over $2b 2. Those shares were trading around $55. Th
by Lazare 6y ago
It's absurdly complicated, but....as I understand it, yes.
1. CCIV sold shared at $10 each, raising a bit over $2b
2. Those shares were trading around $55. This price represents a "pre-pop"; the price spiked on rumours CCIV would be merging with Lucid. There's still only $2b of money in the pot though.
3. CCIV is agreeing to value Lucid at $24b. The $2b of cash will buy around 8% of the company.
4. A seperate (PIPE) investment is adding another $2b of cash to the pot, but what terms the PIPE investment is getting and what valuation they're using is unknown.
5. So yes, if you bought a share in CCIV for $55 (or held onto it rather than selling it for $55), and are opting not to redeem, you're saying that you think $10 worth of Lucid at a $24b value is going to be worth over $55 at their "true" valuation which would be....yeah, at least $132b.
See also: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-19/michael-klein-s-cciv-hits-spac-jackpot-with-reddit-adored-lucid https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-19/michae...
That was written a few days ago before the deal had been made when there was speculation of a $12b valuation, and it already seemed a bit wild
So...yes, either I'm missing something basic, or a $55 share value now is basically a gamble on Lucid having a market cap of well over $100b once it's trading.
(Talk about first day pops; with SPACs you don't even have to wait until a deal has been signed to get a several hundred percent pop....)