4 ms·
I'm mostly on board with your formulation, but I'd tweak it some. I'd say the thesis is: 1. Battery electric vehicles are the inevitable future, so you can inv
by Zanni 6y ago
I'm mostly on board with your formulation, but I'd tweak it some. I'd say the thesis is:
1. Battery electric vehicles are the inevitable future, so you can invest now (when it's possibly too early) or invest later (when it will definitely be more expensive). So far, the market seems to be on board with investing now.
2. Established automakers are ripe for disruption in the classic sense, not because they're too slow or too bureaucratic, but due to their opportunity costs. They make money now selling ICE vehicles and lose money when they try to sell electric vehicles. It feels like the Apple II to Mac transition but they don't have a Steve Jobs at the helm to force the issue.
3. Therefore, electric vehicle manufacturers are the smart bet for the long haul.
And, for what it's worth, as an EV owner, I'm absolutely on board with this thesis. Infrastructure changes will come fast once demand is there.
- molyss 6y agoI'm having a hard time understanding why investing later would be more expensive than investing now. Unless you're taking into account the opportunity cost, I would expect the cost of investing in an electric infrastructure to be lower once the kinks have been worked out by early adopters. On top of having a brand new set of expertise to shop for, the traditional automakers also will have to modify their existing factories. They'll have to do that eventually, but there might be some massive cost associated with adapting factories to the wrong tech.
- Zanni 6y agoI'm talking about stock investors. People tend to buy on anticipation, so the folks who get in early drive up the price for the folks who are waiting for a sure thing.
- Hypx 6y agoAnd what if fuel cell electric vehicles became the future? Wouldn't you have completely gotten it wrong?