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Yup. Car market moves slowly and requires massive infrastructure. I've never bought a car that was less than 7 years old and I drove it for about a decade. Aver
by rsj_hn 6y ago
Yup. Car market moves slowly and requires massive infrastructure. I've never bought a car that was less than 7 years old and I drove it for about a decade. Average vehicle age is 12 years and 1/4 of vehicles on the road are older than 16 years. New cars are only 6% of the market and cars are lasting longer every year, since quality and durability keeps increasing. Really they keep getting better and better.
My best guess is that in 30 years, the majority of cars on the road are still going to be ICE. But in 100 years? Who knows, we might get a fantastic battery breakthrough or perhaps we'll be driving fusion powered cars :P
- tigershark 6y agoNot in decent countries. UK is banning new ICE car sales in 9 years. Norway is aiming for a ban in 4 years. Several other EU countries are planning for a 2030 ban.
- midasuni 6y agoTesla don’t really cater for the U.K. or euro market - where’s the fiesta/corsa/golf size range? Or even the focus/fabia/astra size? The model 3 is too big and too pricey compared to things like the leaf.
- sjwright 6y agoI suppose the BMW 3 series and Mercedes C-Class aren't products which cater to the U.K. or Euro market either? Obviously Tesla doesn't cater to the entire Euro market. But to suggest that Telsa has to cater to all segments in order to be taken seriously is a rather weird bar.
- midasuni 6y agoReally minor part of the market.
- nly 6y agoThose timelines are subject to political winds, not the laws of physics.
- chrisco255 6y agoDecent countries let markets move as needed because there are far more trade offs than any politician can fathom. Also I wonder what Norway is going to do if and when their offshore oil export business dries up?
- Judgmentality 6y ago> cars are lasting longer every year, since quality and durability keeps increasing. This isn't true. Japanese cars don't have the same reliability they did in the 90's. You're not gonna find anything like a 2JZ engine on an affordable car these days. VW quality seems to be on the verge of falling off a cliff as they seem to be desperate to increase profits without improving quality. Oddly enough I would mention Korean cars for being especially reliable, but then Hyundai and Kia got hacked the other day, so...
- toddmorey 6y agoBy the data, it IS true, though. Cars—especially the engines—are lasting longer because we're just better at making them. Reliability by manufacturer varies of course. Since the engines are lasting longer, our durability problems now turn to the interiors, which currently can't be updated or refreshed the way say a kitchen can. Would like to see that change.
- Judgmentality 6y agoYou're right, the data does seem to support you. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cars-now-last-longer-than-ever-will-yours/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cars-now-last-longer-than-ever-...
- rsj_hn 6y agoI rag on body styling but in terms of engine power, efficiency, safety, durability, features, and interior quality, cars have gotten much, much better. The launch of new innovative disruption first from Japan, then Korea, and now homegrown competitors like Tesla has really improved competition and driven more innovation in the industry. The new tech is also getting insane, with hand gestures recognition, cameras everywhere, blind spot sensors. It's a great time to drive a car.
- Judgmentality 6y agoThere are cons as well. Manufacturers are mostly moving away from buttons, which is arguably a safety issue. It's harder to find hydraulic steering so we're left with the muted electronic racks you find today. They have all sorts of technology you find useful, but I actually spent a significant chunk of time figuring out how to remove the modem in my car. Oh, and they're typically much heavier, the bane of any performance vehicle (and bad for the environment, fuel economy, and safety for pedestrians).