3 ms·
Flight frequency is still less than half of normal. With reduced frequency you wouldn't expect a years worth of total engine failures in a week. Poisson distri
by jojobas 6y ago
Flight frequency is still less than half of normal. With reduced frequency you wouldn't expect a years worth of total engine failures in a week.
Poisson distribution could tell how improbable it is but I'm lazy.
- raws 6y ago2¹⁰⁴*e-²2/(104!)=2.66523e−136 If annual occurence is 2 and it happens twice every week in a year. But it has not so far :) Weekly occurence of 0 has 13.5% chance of happening this being the case for 7 weeks before this last 8th 2021, 13.5*7/8= 11.8% so far. But I'm no statistician.
- jojobas 6y agoI've run the numbers here https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx At a weekly probability of 0.04 (2 failures/52 weeks) the probability of 2 failures within a week is 0.077%. The probability of 0 failures in a week is 96%. Accounting or halving of flight frequency it's 0.02% and 98% respectively.
- raws 6y agoOh right k for a week is not 2 but 2/52!